Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
Abstract
Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
Citation
Howard , C , Marjakangas , E-L , Morán-Ordóñez , A , Milanesi , P , Abuladze , A , Aghababyan , K , Ajder , V , Arkumarev , V , Balmer , D E , Bauer , H-G , Beale , C M , Bino , T , Boyla , K A , Burfield , I J , Burke , B , Caffrey , B , Chodkiewicz , T , Del Moral , J C , Mazal , V D , Fernández , N , Fornasari , L , Gerlach , B , Godinho , C , Herrando , S , Ieronymidou , C , Johnston , A , Jovicevic , M , Kalyakin , M , Keller , V , Knaus , P , Kotrošan , D , Kuzmenko , T , Leitão , D , Lindström , Å , Maxhuni , Q , Mihelič , T , Mikuska , T , Molina , B , Nagy , K , Noble , D , Øien , I J , Paquet , J-Y , Pladevall , C , Portolou , D , Radišić , D , Rajkov , S , Rajković , D Z , Raudonikis , L , Sattler , T , Saveljić , D , Shimmings , P , Sjenicic , J , Šťastný , K , Stoychev , S , Strus , I , Sudfeldt , C , Sultanov , E , Szép , T , Teufelbauer , N , Uzunova , D , van Turnhout , C A M , Velevski , M , Vikstrøm , T , Vintchevski , A , Voltzit , O , Voříšek , P , Wilk , T , Zurell , D , Brotons , L , Lehikoinen , A & Willis , S G 2023 , ' Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability ' , Nature Communications , vol. 14 , no. 1 , 4304 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
Publication
Nature Communications
Status
Peer reviewed
ISSN
2041-1723Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright © The Author(s) 2023. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Description
Funding: This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001.Collections
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