Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
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Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
Howard , C , Marjakangas , E-L , Morán-Ordóñez , A , Milanesi , P , Abuladze , A , Aghababyan , K , Ajder , V , Arkumarev , V , Balmer , D E , Bauer , H-G , Beale , C M , Bino , T , Boyla , K A , Burfield , I J , Burke , B , Caffrey , B , Chodkiewicz , T , Del Moral , J C , Mazal , V D , Fernández , N , Fornasari , L , Gerlach , B , Godinho , C , Herrando , S , Ieronymidou , C , Johnston , A , Jovicevic , M , Kalyakin , M , Keller , V , Knaus , P , Kotrošan , D , Kuzmenko , T , Leitão , D , Lindström , Å , Maxhuni , Q , Mihelič , T , Mikuska , T , Molina , B , Nagy , K , Noble , D , Øien , I J , Paquet , J-Y , Pladevall , C , Portolou , D , Radišić , D , Rajkov , S , Rajković , D Z , Raudonikis , L , Sattler , T , Saveljić , D , Shimmings , P , Sjenicic , J , Šťastný , K , Stoychev , S , Strus , I , Sudfeldt , C , Sultanov , E , Szép , T , Teufelbauer , N , Uzunova , D , van Turnhout , C A M , Velevski , M , Vikstrøm , T , Vintchevski , A , Voltzit , O , Voříšek , P , Wilk , T , Zurell , D , Brotons , L , Lehikoinen , A & Willis , S G 2023 , ' Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability ' , Nature Communications , vol. 14 , no. 1 , 4304 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
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DescriptionFunding: This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001.
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