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dc.contributor.authorGurdasani, Deepti
dc.contributor.authorBhatt, Samir
dc.contributor.authorCostello, Anthony
dc.contributor.authorDenaxas, Spiros
dc.contributor.authorFlaxman, Seth
dc.contributor.authorGreenhalgh, Trisha
dc.contributor.authorGriffin, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorHyde, Zoë
dc.contributor.authorKatzourakis, Aris
dc.contributor.authorMcKee, Martin
dc.contributor.authorMichie, Susan
dc.contributor.authorRatmann, Oliver
dc.contributor.authorReicher, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorScally, Gabriel
dc.contributor.authorTomlinson, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorYates, Christian
dc.contributor.authorZiauddeen, Hisham
dc.contributor.authorPagel, Christina
dc.identifier.citationGurdasani , D , Bhatt , S , Costello , A , Denaxas , S , Flaxman , S , Greenhalgh , T , Griffin , S , Hyde , Z , Katzourakis , A , McKee , M , Michie , S , Ratmann , O , Reicher , S , Scally , G , Tomlinson , C , Yates , C , Ziauddeen , H & Pagel , C 2021 , ' Vaccinating adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 in England : a risk–benefit analysis ' , Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine , vol. Online First .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 276551697
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 95b62078-68e1-4425-8508-d893b9c57215
dc.identifier.otherRIS: urn:3598DD183190B27899F367D61ACDC621
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85118442668
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000715479700001
dc.description.abstractObjective To offer a quantitative risk–benefit analysis of two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among adolescents in England. Setting England. Design Following the risk–benefit analysis methodology carried out by the US Centers for Disease Control, we calculated historical rates of hospital admission, Intensive Care Unit admission and death for ascertained SARS-CoV-2 cases in children aged 12–17 in England. We then used these rates alongside a range of estimates for incidence of long COVID, vaccine efficacy and vaccine-induced myocarditis, to estimate hospital and Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID over a period of 16 weeks under assumptions of high and low case incidence. Participants All 12–17 year olds with a record of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in England between 1 July 2020 and 31 March 2021 using national linked electronic health records, accessed through the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations, Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID averted by vaccinating all 12–17 year olds in England over a 16-week period under different estimates of future case incidence. Results At high future case incidence of 1000/100,000 population/week over 16 weeks, vaccination could avert 4430 hospital admissions and 36 deaths over 16 weeks. At the low incidence of 50/100,000/week, vaccination could avert 70 hospital admissions and two deaths over 16 weeks. The benefit of vaccination in terms of hospitalisations in adolescents outweighs risks unless case rates are sustainably very low (below 30/100,000 teenagers/week). Benefit of vaccination exists at any case rate for the outcomes of death and long COVID, since neither have been associated with vaccination to date. Conclusions Given the current (as at 15 September 2021) high case rates (680/100,000 population/week in 10–19 year olds) in England, our findings support vaccination of adolescents against SARS-CoV2.
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Royal Society of Medicineen
dc.rightsCopyright © The Royal Society of Medicine 2021. Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License ( which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (
dc.subjectEvidence-based practiceen
dc.subjectPublic healthen
dc.subjectVaccination programmesen
dc.subjectRA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicineen
dc.subjectRJ101 Child Health. Child health servicesen
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingen
dc.titleVaccinating adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 in England : a risk–benefit analysisen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Psychology and Neuroscienceen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Equality, Diversity & Inclusionen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. St Andrews Sustainability Instituteen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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