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dc.contributor.authorWatson, Neil
dc.contributor.authorHendricks, Sharief
dc.contributor.authorStewart, Theodor
dc.contributor.authorDurbach, Ian
dc.identifier.citationWatson , N , Hendricks , S , Stewart , T & Durbach , I 2020 , ' Integrating machine learning and decision support in tactical decision-making in rugby union ' , Journal of the Operational Research Society , vol. Latest Articles .
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0003-0769-2153/work/78892098
dc.descriptionFunding: National Research Foundation of South Africa andthe Department of Higher Education and Training via the Teaching and Development Grant (IRMA:29113).en
dc.description.abstractRugby union, like many sports, is based around sequences of play, yet this sequential nature is often overlooked, for example in analyses that aggregate performance measures over a fixed time interval. We use recent developments in convolutional and recurrent neural networks to predict the outcomes of sequences of play, based on the ordered sequence of actions they contain and where on the field these actions occur. The outcomes considered are gaining territory, retaining possession, scoring a try, and being awarded or conceding a penalty. We consider several artificial neural network architectures and compare their performance against baseline models. Accounting for sequential data and using field location improved classification accuracy over the baseline for some outcomes. We then investigate how these prediction models can provide tactical decision support to coaches. We demonstrate that tactical insight can be gained by conducting scenario analyses with data visualisations to investigate which strategies yield the highest probability of achieving the desired outcome.
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Operational Research Societyen
dc.subjectDecision supporten
dc.subjectMachine learningen
dc.subjectNeural networksen
dc.subjectPerformance analysisen
dc.subjectRugby unionen
dc.subjectGV Recreation Leisureen
dc.subjectHD28 Management. Industrial Managementen
dc.subjectQA75 Electronic computers. Computer scienceen
dc.subjectManagement Information Systemsen
dc.subjectStrategy and Managementen
dc.subjectManagement Science and Operations Researchen
dc.titleIntegrating machine learning and decision support in tactical decision-making in rugby unionen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Mathematics and Statisticsen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modellingen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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