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Introduction: understanding the consequences of the Arab uprisings – starting points and divergent trajectories

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Hinnebusch_Consequences_of_the_Arab_Uprisings_structural_variations.pdf (252.7Kb)
Date
03/2015
Author
Hinnebusch, Raymond
Keywords
Arab Uprising
Mobilization
Democratization
Neo-patrimonialism
State capacity
Transition pact
JZ International relations
Social Sciences(all)
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Abstract
This introduction sets the context for the following articles by first conceptualizing the divergent post-uprising trajectories taken by varying states: these are distinguished first by whether state capacity collapses or persists, and if it persists, whether the outcome is a hybrid regime or polyarchy. It then assesses how far starting points – the features of the regime and of the uprising – explain these pathways. Specifically, the varying levels of anti-regime mobilization, explained by factors such as levels of grievances, patterns of cleavages, and opportunity structure, determine whether rulers are quickly removed or stalemate sets in. Additionally, the ability of regime and opposition softliners to reach a transition pact greatly shapes democratic prospects. But, also important is the capacity – coercive and co-optative – of the authoritarian rulers to resist, itself a function of factors such as the balance between the patrimonial and bureaucratic features of neo-patrimonial regimes.
Citation
Hinnebusch , R 2015 , ' Introduction: understanding the consequences of the Arab uprisings – starting points and divergent trajectories ' , Democratization , vol. 22 , no. 1 . https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2015.1010807
Publication
Democratization
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2015.1010807
ISSN
1351-0347
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright 2015 Taylor & Francis. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Democratization on 24/03/2015, available online: http://wwww.tandfonline.com/10.1080/13510347.2015.1010807
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9546

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