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Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

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Date
06/11/2015
Author
Cook, Edward R.
Seager, Richard
Kushnir, Yochanan
Briffa, Keith R.
Büntgen, Ulf
Frank, David
Krusic, Paul J.
Tegel, Willy
van der Schrier, Gerard
Andreu-Hayles, Laia
Baillie, Mike
Baittinger, Claudia
Bleicher, Niels
Bonde, Niels
Brown, David
Carrer, Marco
Cooper, Richard
Čufar, Katarina
Dittmar, Christoph
Esper, Jan
Griggs, Carol
Gunnarson, Björn
Günther, Björn
Gutierrez, Emilia
Haneca, Kristof
Helama, Samuli
Herzig, Franz
Heussner, Karl-Uwe
Hofmann, Jutta
Janda, Pavel
Kontic, Raymond
Köse, Nesibe
Kyncl, Tomáš
Levaniv c, Tom
Linderholm, Hans
Manning, Sturt
Melvin, Thomas M.
Miles, Daniel
Neuwirth, Burkhard
Nicolussi, Kurt
Nola, Paola
Panayotov, Momchil
Popa, Ionel
Rothe, Andreas
Seftigen, Kristina
Seim, Andrea
Svarva, Helene
Svoboda, Miroslav
Thun, Terje
Timonen, Mauri
Touchan, Ramzi
Trotsiuk, Volodymyr
Trouet, Valerie
Walder, Felix
Wazny, Tomasz
Wilson, Rob
Zang, Christian
Keywords
Drought atlas
Megadrought
Dendroclimatology
Tree-ring reconstruction
Mediterranean drying
Climate change
Greenhouse gas forcing
GE Environmental Sciences
DAS
BDC
R2C
SDG 13 - Climate Action
SDG 15 - Life on Land
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Abstract
Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.
Citation
Cook , E R , Seager , R , Kushnir , Y , Briffa , K R , Büntgen , U , Frank , D , Krusic , P J , Tegel , W , van der Schrier , G , Andreu-Hayles , L , Baillie , M , Baittinger , C , Bleicher , N , Bonde , N , Brown , D , Carrer , M , Cooper , R , Čufar , K , Dittmar , C , Esper , J , Griggs , C , Gunnarson , B , Günther , B , Gutierrez , E , Haneca , K , Helama , S , Herzig , F , Heussner , K-U , Hofmann , J , Janda , P , Kontic , R , Köse , N , Kyncl , T , Levaniv c , T , Linderholm , H , Manning , S , Melvin , T M , Miles , D , Neuwirth , B , Nicolussi , K , Nola , P , Panayotov , M , Popa , I , Rothe , A , Seftigen , K , Seim , A , Svarva , H , Svoboda , M , Thun , T , Timonen , M , Touchan , R , Trotsiuk , V , Trouet , V , Walder , F , Wazny , T , Wilson , R & Zang , C 2015 , ' Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era ' , Science Advances , vol. 1 , no. 10 , e1500561 , pp. 1-9 . https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561
Publication
Science Advances
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561
ISSN
2375-2548
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright © 2015, The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
Description
Funding: The authors thank the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Change Data and Detection Program for supporting this project (award NA10OAR4310123) and the National Science Foundation Earth System History Program (awards 0075956 and ESH0317288), ATM GEO/ATM Paleoclimate Program (award 0758486), and award 1103314 for additional long-term support in developing this research in the Mediterranean region.
Collections
  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7775

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