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For Bayesians, rational modesty requires imprecision

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for_bayesians_rational_modesty_requires_imprecision.pdf (186.8Kb)
Date
2015
Author
Weatherson, Brian James
Keywords
B Philosophy (General)
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Abstract
Gordon Belot (2013) has recently developed a novel argument against Bayesianism. He shows that there is an interesting class of problems that, intuitively, no rational belief forming method is likely to get right. But a Bayesian agent’s credence, before the problem starts, that she will get the problem right has to be 1. This is an implausible kind of immodesty on the part of Bayesians. My aim is to show that while this is a good argument against traditional, precise Bayesians, the argument doesn’t neatly extend to imprecise Bayesians. As such, Belot’s argument is a reason to prefer imprecise Bayesianism to precise Bayesianism.
Citation
Weatherson , B J 2015 , ' For Bayesians, rational modesty requires imprecision ' , Ergo , vol. 2 , no. 20 , 20 . https://doi.org/10.3998/ergo.12405314.0002.020
Publication
Ergo
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3998/ergo.12405314.0002.020
ISSN
2330-4014
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright 2015 the Author. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7582

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