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Increased uncertainty in projections of precipitation and evaporation due to wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier biases
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dc.contributor.author | Adam, Ori | |
dc.contributor.author | Shourky Wolff, Maya | |
dc.contributor.author | Garfinkel, Chaim I. | |
dc.contributor.author | Byrne, Michael P. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-12-21T09:30:09Z | |
dc.date.available | 2023-12-21T09:30:09Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-12-19 | |
dc.identifier | 297557222 | |
dc.identifier | 380ad97c-c10f-4c1d-869b-b4c801ff18d8 | |
dc.identifier | 85180149511 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Adam , O , Shourky Wolff , M , Garfinkel , C I & Byrne , M P 2023 , ' Increased uncertainty in projections of precipitation and evaporation due to wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier biases ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 50 , no. 24 , e2023GL106365 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl106365 | en |
dc.identifier.issn | 0094-8276 | |
dc.identifier.other | Jisc: 1602736 | |
dc.identifier.other | publisher-id: grl66743 | |
dc.identifier.other | society-id: 2023gl106365 | |
dc.identifier.other | ORCID: /0000-0001-9019-3915/work/149333198 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10023/28918 | |
dc.description | The research was supported by the Israel Science Foundation Grant 1022/21. | en |
dc.description.abstract | A key implication of the well known wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier (WGW) scaling is that model biases in the representation of precipitation and evaporation in the present climate lead to spurious projected changes under global warming. Here we estimate the extent of such spurious changes in projections by 60 models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Utilizing known thermodynamic constraints on evaporation, we show that the WGW scaling can be applied to precipitation and evaporation separately (specific WGW scaling), which we use to correct for spurious projected changes in precipitation and evaporation over tropical oceans. The spurious changes in precipitation can be of comparable amplitude to projected changes, but are generally small for evaporation. The spurious changes may increase the uncertainty in projections of tropical precipitation and evaporation by up to 30% and 15% respectively. | |
dc.format.extent | 12 | |
dc.format.extent | 2502867 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Geophysical Research Letters | en |
dc.subject | Precipitation biases | en |
dc.subject | Bias correction | en |
dc.subject | Global warming projections | en |
dc.subject | Evaporation biases | en |
dc.subject | Dry‐get‐drier | en |
dc.subject | Wet‐get‐wetter | en |
dc.subject | GE Environmental Sciences | en |
dc.subject | 3rd-DAS | en |
dc.subject | SDG 13 - Climate Action | en |
dc.subject.lcc | GE | en |
dc.title | Increased uncertainty in projections of precipitation and evaporation due to wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier biases | en |
dc.type | Journal article | en |
dc.contributor.institution | University of St Andrews. School of Earth & Environmental Sciences | en |
dc.contributor.institution | University of St Andrews. Centre for Energy Ethics | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1029/2023gl106365 | |
dc.description.status | Peer reviewed | en |
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