Increased uncertainty in projections of precipitation and evaporation due to wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier biases
Abstract
A key implication of the well known wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier (WGW) scaling is that model biases in the representation of precipitation and evaporation in the present climate lead to spurious projected changes under global warming. Here we estimate the extent of such spurious changes in projections by 60 models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Utilizing known thermodynamic constraints on evaporation, we show that the WGW scaling can be applied to precipitation and evaporation separately (specific WGW scaling), which we use to correct for spurious projected changes in precipitation and evaporation over tropical oceans. The spurious changes in precipitation can be of comparable amplitude to projected changes, but are generally small for evaporation. The spurious changes may increase the uncertainty in projections of tropical precipitation and evaporation by up to 30% and 15% respectively.
Citation
Adam , O , Shourky Wolff , M , Garfinkel , C I & Byrne , M P 2023 , ' Increased uncertainty in projections of precipitation and evaporation due to wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier biases ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 50 , no. 24 , e2023GL106365 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl106365
Publication
Geophysical Research Letters
Status
Peer reviewed
ISSN
0094-8276Type
Journal article
Description
The research was supported by the Israel Science Foundation Grant 1022/21.Collections
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