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dc.contributor.authorShah, Syed Ahmar
dc.contributor.authorMulholland, Rachel H
dc.contributor.authorWilkinson, Samantha
dc.contributor.authorKatikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal
dc.contributor.authorPan, Jiafeng
dc.contributor.authorShi, Ting
dc.contributor.authorKerr, Steven
dc.contributor.authorAgrawal, Uktarsh
dc.contributor.authorRudan, Igor
dc.contributor.authorSimpson, Colin R
dc.contributor.authorStock, Sarah J
dc.contributor.authorMacleod, John
dc.contributor.authorMurray, Josephine-LK
dc.contributor.authorMcCowan, Colin
dc.contributor.authorRitchie, Lewis
dc.contributor.authorWoolhouse, Mark
dc.contributor.authorSheikh, Aziz
dc.identifier.citationShah , S A , Mulholland , R H , Wilkinson , S , Katikireddi , S V , Pan , J , Shi , T , Kerr , S , Agrawal , U , Rudan , I , Simpson , C R , Stock , S J , Macleod , J , Murray , J-LK , McCowan , C , Ritchie , L , Woolhouse , M & Sheikh , A 2022 , ' Impact on emergency and elective hospital-based care in Scotland over the first 12 months of the pandemic: interrupted time-series analysis of national lockdowns ' , Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine , vol. OnlineFirst , 01410768221095239 .
dc.identifier.otherRIS: urn:C76389C7B97B79C3114BB33103413150
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-9466-833X/work/113061123
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-1511-7944/work/115941606
dc.descriptionThe author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This analysis is part of the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) study. EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE – The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through the Scottish Government DG Health and Social Care. SAS and AS are also supported by the COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing National Core Study, funded by the Medical Research Council (MC_PC_20030). SVK acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2) and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). JM is partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West).en
dc.description.abstractObjectives COVID-19 has resulted in the greatest disruption to National Health Service (NHS) care in its over 70-year history. Building on our previous work, we assessed the ongoing impact of pandemic-related disruption on provision of emergency and elective hospital-based care across Scotland over the first year of the pandemic. Design We undertook interrupted time-series analyses to evaluate the impact of ongoing pandemic-related disruption on hospital NHS care provision at national level and across demographics and clinical specialties spanning the period 29 March 2020?28 March 2021. Setting Scotland, UK. Participants Patients receiving hospital care from NHS Scotland. Main outcome measures We used the percentage change of accident and emergency attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions during the pandemic compared to the average admission rate for equivalent weeks in 2018-2019. Results As restrictions were gradually lifted in Scotland after the first lockdown, hospital-based admissions increased approaching pre-pandemic levels. Subsequent tightening of restrictions in September 2020 were associated with a change in slope of relative weekly admissions rate: -1.98% (-2.38, -1.58) in accident and emergency attendance, -1.36% (-1.68, -1.04) in emergency admissions and -2.31% (-2.95, -1.66) in planned admissions. A similar pattern was seen across sex, socioeconomic status and most age groups, except children (0-14 years) where accident and emergency attendance, and emergency admissions were persistently low over the study period. Conclusions We found substantial disruption to urgent and planned inpatient healthcare provision in hospitals across NHS Scotland. There is the need for urgent policy responses to address continuing unmet health needs and to ensure resilience in the context of future pandemics.
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Royal Society of Medicineen
dc.subjectPopulation trendsen
dc.subjectPublic healthen
dc.subjectStatistics and research methodsen
dc.subjectRA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicineen
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingen
dc.titleImpact on emergency and elective hospital-based care in Scotland over the first 12 months of the pandemic: interrupted time-series analysis of national lockdownsen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Population and Behavioural Science Divisionen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Medicineen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Sir James Mackenzie Institute for Early Diagnosisen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Education Divisionen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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