Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents
Abstract
Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28-85% for vectors, 44-88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.
Citation
Caldwell , J M , LaBeaud , A D , Lambin , E F , Stewart-Ibarra , A M , Ndenga , B A , Mutuku , F M , Krystosik , A R , Ayala , E B , Anyamba , A , Borbor-Cordova , M J , Damoah , R , Grossi-Soyster , E N , Heras , F H , Ngugi , H N , Ryan , S J , Shah , M M , Sippy , R & Mordecai , E A 2021 , ' Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents ' , Nature Communications , vol. 12 , 1233 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21496-7
Publication
Nature Communications
Status
Peer reviewed
ISSN
2041-1723Type
Journal article
Description
Funding: J.M.C., A.D.L., E.F.L., and E.A.M. were supported by a Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment—Environmental Ventures Program grant (PIs: E.A.M., A.D.L., and E.F.L.). E.A.M. was also supported by a Hellman Faculty Fellowship and a Terman Award. A.D.L., B.A.N., F.M.M., E.N.G.S., M.S.S., A.R.K., R.D., A.A., and H.N.N. were supported by a National Institutes of Health R01 grant (AI102918; PI: A.D.L.). E.A.M., A.M.S.I., and S.J.R. were supported by a National Science Foundation (NSF) Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases (EEID) grant (DEB-1518681), and A.M.S.I. and S.J.R. were also supported by an NSF DEB RAPID grant (1641145). E.A.M. was also supported by a National Institute of General Medical Sciences Maximizing Investigators’ Research Award grant (R35GM133439) and an NSF and Fogarty International Center EEID grant (DEB-2011147).Collections
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