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Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19

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Berrington_2022_PSP_Scenario_based_fertility_projections_COVID_19_CC.pdf (7.296Mb)
Date
29/12/2021
Author
Berrington, Ann
Ellison, Joanne
Kuang, Bernice
Vasireddy, Sindhu
Kulu, Hill
Keywords
Baby boom
Baby bust
COVID-19
Fertility
Pandemic
RG Gynecology and obstetrics
3rd-DAS
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Abstract
This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. The effects are likely to differ by age and presence of children. Considering potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family sizes, we expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low UK levels. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four, fertility is expected to decline over the next 3 years, leading to significantly fewer births annually compared with the pre-pandemic period.
Citation
Berrington , A , Ellison , J , Kuang , B , Vasireddy , S & Kulu , H 2021 , ' Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19 ' , Population, Space and Place , vol. Early View , e2546 . https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2546
Publication
Population, Space and Place
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2546
ISSN
1544-8444
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Population, Space and Place published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Description
Research Funding: Economic and Social Research Council, Grant Numbers: ES/S009477/1, ES/R009139/1.
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/24630

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