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dc.contributor.authorBerrington, Ann
dc.contributor.authorEllison, Joanne
dc.contributor.authorKuang, Bernice
dc.contributor.authorVasireddy, Sindhu
dc.contributor.authorKulu, Hill
dc.identifier.citationBerrington , A , Ellison , J , Kuang , B , Vasireddy , S & Kulu , H 2021 , ' Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19 ' , Population, Space and Place , vol. Early View , e2546 .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 277339296
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 311c4ef5-e8b1-476c-a295-b0f50abb7f2a
dc.identifier.otherRIS: urn:A5E8A92F5664E85ED258624DE4547E10
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0001-8808-0719/work/105957080
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85122084380
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000735918400001
dc.descriptionResearch Funding: Economic and Social Research Council, Grant Numbers: ES/S009477/1, ES/R009139/1.en
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. The effects are likely to differ by age and presence of children. Considering potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family sizes, we expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low UK levels. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four, fertility is expected to decline over the next 3 years, leading to significantly fewer births annually compared with the pre-pandemic period.
dc.relation.ispartofPopulation, Space and Placeen
dc.rightsCopyright © 2021 The Authors. Population, Space and Place published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en
dc.subjectBaby boomen
dc.subjectBaby busten
dc.subjectRG Gynecology and obstetricsen
dc.titleScenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19en
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.sponsorEconomic & Social Research Councilen
dc.contributor.sponsorEconomic & Social Research Councilen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Developmenten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Population and Health Researchen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Sir James Mackenzie Institute for Early Diagnosisen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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