The natural selection of good science
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Scientists in some fields are concerned that many published results are false. Recent models predict selection for false positives as the inevitable result of pressure to publish, even when scientists are penalized for publications that fail to replicate. We model the cultural evolution of research practices when laboratories are allowed to expend effort on theory, enabling them, at a cost, to identify hypotheses that are more likely to be true, before empirical testing. Theory can restore high effort in research practice and suppress false positives to a technical minimum, even without replication. The mere ability to choose between two sets of hypotheses, one with greater prior chance of being correct, promotes better science than can be achieved with effortless access to the set of stronger hypotheses. Combining theory and replication can have synergistic effects. On the basis of our analysis, we propose four simple recommendations to promote good science.
Stewart , A J & Plotkin , J B 2021 , ' The natural selection of good science ' , Nature Human Behaviour . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01111-x
Nature Human Behaviour
Copyright © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01111-x.
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