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Emission scenarios of a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom

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Date
27/05/2019
Author
Cremonese, Lorenzo
Weger, Lindsey
Denier van der Gon, Hugo
Bartels, Marianne Pascale
Butler, Tim
Keywords
Shale gas
Unconventional gas
Methane leakage
O&G industry
Fracking
Natural gas
HD Industries. Land use. Labor
G Geography (General)
NDAS
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
SDG 15 - Life on Land
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Abstract
The shale gas debate has taken center stage over the past decade in many European countries due to its purported climate advantages over coal and the implications for domestic energy security. Nevertheless, shale gas production generates greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions including carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds. In this study we develop three shale gas drilling projections in Germany and the United Kingdom based on estimated reservoir productivities and local capacity. For each projection, we define a set of emission scenarios in which gas losses are assigned to each stage of upstream gas production to quantify total emissions. The “realistic” (REm) and “optimistic” (OEm) scenarios investigated in this study describe, respectively, the potential emission range generated by business-as-usual activities, and the lowest emissions technically possible according to our settings. The latter scenario is based on the application of specific technologies and full compliance with a stringent regulatory framework described herein. Based on the median drilling projection, total annual methane emissions range between 150–294 Kt in REm and 28–42 Kt in OEm, while carbon dioxide emissions span from 5.55–7.21 Mt in REm to 3.11–3.96 Mt in OEm. Taking all drilling projections into consideration, methane leakage rates in REm range between 0.45 and 1.36% in Germany, and between 0.35 and 0.71% in the United Kingdom. The leakage rates are discussed in both the European (conventional gas) and international (shale gas) contexts. Further, the emission intensity of a potential European shale gas industry is estimated and compared to national inventories. Results from our science-based prospective scenarios can facilitate an informed discussion among the public and policy makers on the climate impact of a potential shale gas development in Europe, and on the appropriate role of natural gas in the worldwide energy transition.
Citation
Cremonese , L , Weger , L , Denier van der Gon , H , Bartels , M P & Butler , T 2019 , ' Emission scenarios of a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom ' , Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene , vol. 7 , 18 . https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.359
Publication
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.359
ISSN
2325-1026
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright: © 2019 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Description
The entire project was internally funded by the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) Potsdam.
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/21272

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