A balance of winners and losers in the Anthropocene
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Scientists disagree about the nature of biodiversity change. While there is evidence for widespread declines from population surveys, assemblage surveys reveal a mix of declines and increases. These conflicting conclusions may be caused by the use of different metrics: assemblage metrics may average out drastic changes in individual populations. Alternatively, differences may arise from data sources: populations monitored individually, versus whole-assemblage monitoring. To test these hypotheses, we estimated population change metrics using assemblage data. For a set of 23 241 populations, 16 009 species, in 158 assemblages, we detected significantly accelerating extinction and colonisation rates, with both rates being approximately balanced. Most populations (85%) did not show significant trends in abundance, and those that did were balanced between winners (8%) and losers (7%). Thus, population metrics estimated with assemblage data are commensurate with assemblage metrics and reveal sustained and increasing species turnover.
Dornelas , M , Gotelli , N J , Shimadzu , H , Moyes , F , Magurran , A E & McGill , B J 2019 , ' A balance of winners and losers in the Anthropocene ' , Ecology Letters , vol. 22 , no. 5 , pp. 847-854 . https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13242
Copyright © 2019, John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS. This work has been made available online in accordance with the publisher's policies. This is the author created accepted version manuscript following peer review and as such may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13242
DescriptionThe authors are grateful to the European Research Council (AdG BioTIME 250189 and PoC BioCHANGE 72744) for funding. MD is funded by a Leverhulme Fellowship from the Leverhulme Trust and by the John Templeton Foundation grant #60501 ‘Putting the Extended Evolutionary Synthesis to the Test’. BJM was funded by a USDA Hatch grant to MAFES #1011538 and NSF ABI grant #1660000.
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