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Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings : Part I: The long term context

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Wilson_2015_QuaternarySciRev_AAM.pdf (5.157Mb)
Date
15/02/2016
Author
Wilson, Rob
Anchukaitis, Kevin
Briffa, Keith R.
Büntgen, Ulf
Cook, Edward
D'Arrigo, Rosanne
Davi, Nicole
Esper, Jan
Frank, Dave
Gunnarson, Björn
Hegerl, Gabi
Helama, Samuli
Klesse, Stefan
Krusic, Paul J.
Linderholm, Hans W.
Myglan, Vladimir
Osborn, Timothy J.
Rydval, Miloš
Schneider, Lea
Schurer, Andrew
Wiles, Greg
Zhang, Peng
Zorita, Eduardo
Keywords
CMIP5 models
Last millennium
Northern hemisphere
Reconstruction
Summer temperatures
Tree-rings
CC Archaeology
GE Environmental Sciences
QE Geology
Geology
Global and Planetary Change
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Archaeology
Archaeology
Metadata
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Abstract
Large-scale millennial length Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstructions have been progressively improved over the last 20 years as new datasets have been developed. This paper, and its companion (Part II, Anchukaitis et al. in prep), details the latest tree-ring (TR) based NH land air temperature reconstruction from a temporal and spatial perspective. This work is the first product of a consortium called N-TREND (Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development) which brings together dendroclimatologists to identify a collective strategy for improving large-scale summer temperature reconstructions. The new reconstruction, N-TREND2015, utilises 54 records, a significant expansion compared with previous TR studies, and yields an improved reconstruction with stronger statistical calibration metrics. N-TREND2015 is relatively insensitive to the compositing method and spatial weighting used and validation metrics indicate that the new record portrays reasonable coherence with large scale summer temperatures and is robust at all time-scales from 918 to 2004 where at least 3 TR records exist from each major continental mass. N-TREND2015 indicates a longer and warmer medieval period (~900-1170) than portrayed by previous TR NH reconstructions and by the CMIP5 model ensemble, but with better overall agreement between records for the last 600 years. Future dendroclimatic projects should focus on developing new long records from data-sparse regions such as North America and eastern Eurasia as well as ensuring the measurement of parameters related to latewood density to complement ring-width records which can improve local based calibration substantially.
Citation
Wilson , R , Anchukaitis , K , Briffa , K R , Büntgen , U , Cook , E , D'Arrigo , R , Davi , N , Esper , J , Frank , D , Gunnarson , B , Hegerl , G , Helama , S , Klesse , S , Krusic , P J , Linderholm , H W , Myglan , V , Osborn , T J , Rydval , M , Schneider , L , Schurer , A , Wiles , G , Zhang , P & Zorita , E 2016 , ' Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings : Part I: The long term context ' , Quaternary Science Reviews , vol. 134 , pp. 1-18 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005
Publication
Quaternary Science Reviews
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005
ISSN
0277-3791
Type
Journal item
Rights
© 2016, Publisher / the Author(s). This work is made available online in accordance with the publisher’s policies. This is the author created, accepted version manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at www.sciencedirect.com / https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005
Description
Funding: UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC - NE/K003097/1) and Leverhulme Trust project (F/00 268/BG)
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URL
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84953380065&partnerID=8YFLogxK
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10302

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