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dc.contributor.authorMackay, Brad
dc.contributor.authorStoyanova, Veselina
dc.identifier.citationMackay , B & Stoyanova , V 2017 , ' Scenario planning with a sociological eye : augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the future of Scotland and the UK ' , Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol. 124 , pp. 88-100 .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 245703099
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 4dcf5267-cdf2-4ae8-89c3-d17081bcb3b3
dc.identifier.otherRIS: urn:16391F536579F876E80BA3697F282145
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 84995451118
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000413384300009
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0001-8737-3018/work/82788657
dc.descriptionWe would also like to acknowledge the generous financial support of the UK's Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC ES/L005301/1) and the Future of the UK and Scotland program.en
dc.description.abstractThis paper draws on a social theory-informed understanding of causality to illustrate how notions of agent–structure interactions can enhance the intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario planning. It incorporates concepts such as the ‘subjective’ predispositions of agency, ‘objective’ structures of social systems, activity dependence, unintended consequences of action and event-time temporality in the IL method to augment causal analysis in the scenario development process. The paper illustrates the social theory-informed IL framework through its application to a scenario exercise undertaken in the lead-up to the Scottish referendum on independence from the United Kingdom on September 18th, 2014. The central thesis of the paper is that agent–structure interactions underpin the unfolding of futures in social systems by both constraining and enabling the range of possible futures that can emerge.
dc.relation.ispartofTechnological Forecasting and Social Changeen
dc.rights© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (
dc.subjectIntuitive logicsen
dc.subjectScenario planningen
dc.subjectPublic policyen
dc.subjectH Social Sciences (General)en
dc.subjectHM Sociologyen
dc.titleScenario planning with a sociological eye : augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the future of Scotland and the UKen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Managementen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Office of the Principalen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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