Scenario planning with a sociological eye: augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the future of Scotland and the UK
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This paper draws on a social theory-informed understanding of causality to illustrate how notions of agent–structure interactions can enhance the intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario planning. It incorporates concepts such as the ‘subjective’ predispositions of agency, ‘objective’ structures of social systems, activity dependence, unintended consequences of action and event-time temporality in the IL method to augment causal analysis in the scenario development process. The paper illustrates the social theory-informed IL framework through its application to a scenario exercise undertaken in the lead-up to the Scottish referendum on independence from the United Kingdom on September 18th, 2014. The central thesis of the paper is that agent–structure interactions underpin the unfolding of futures in social systems by both constraining and enabling the range of possible futures that can emerge.
MacKay , R B & Stoyanova , V 2016 , ' Scenario planning with a sociological eye: augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the future of Scotland and the UK ' Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol In Press . DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.026
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
We would also like to acknowledge the generous financial support of the UK's Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC ES/L005301/1) and the Future of the UK and Scotland program.
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