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dc.contributor.authorPirotta, Enrico
dc.contributor.authorHarwood, John
dc.contributor.authorThompson, Paul
dc.contributor.authorNew, Leslie
dc.contributor.authorCheney, Barbara
dc.contributor.authorArso Civil, Monica
dc.contributor.authorHammond, Philip Steven
dc.contributor.authorDonovan, Carl Robert
dc.contributor.authorLusseau, David
dc.identifier.citationPirotta , E , Harwood , J , Thompson , P , New , L , Cheney , B , Arso Civil , M , Hammond , P S , Donovan , C R & Lusseau , D 2015 , ' Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences ' , Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , vol. 282 , no. 1818 , 20152109 .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 226880840
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: c733a32b-8610-4e6d-9bfd-b587bf99a64d
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 84945940765
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-2381-8302/work/47531605
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0001-8239-9526/work/27166740
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000364850200017
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-1465-5193/work/68647704
dc.descriptionThis work received funding from the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS pooling initiative).en
dc.description.abstractHuman activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciencesen
dc.rights© 2015, Publisher / the Author(s). This work is made available online in accordance with the publisher’s policies. This is the author created, accepted version manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at /
dc.subjectBehavioural responseen
dc.subjectHuman developmenten
dc.subjectIndividual-based modellingen
dc.subjectIndividual heterogeneityen
dc.subjectPopulation consequences of disturbanceen
dc.subjectQH301 Biologyen
dc.titlePredicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequencesen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Biologyen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Instituteen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. St Andrews Sustainability Instituteen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modellingen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Sea Mammal Research Uniten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotlanden
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Mathematics and Statisticsen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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