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dc.contributor.advisorBuckland, S. T. (Stephen T.)
dc.contributor.advisorMatthiopoulos, Jason
dc.contributor.authorNew, Leslie Frances
dc.coverage.spatial1en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-04-06T10:31:14Z
dc.date.available2010-04-06T10:31:14Z
dc.date.issued2010-06-23
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/864
dc.description.abstractState-space modelling is a powerful tool to study ecological systems. The direct inclusion of uncertainty, unification of models and data, and ability to model unobserved, hidden states increases our knowledge about the environment and provides new ecological insights. I extend the state-space framework to create multi-species models, showing that the ability to model ecosystem interactions is limited only by data availability. State-space models are fit using both Bayesian and Frequentist methods, making them independent of a statistical school of thought. Bayesian approaches can have the advantage in their ability to account for missing data and fit hierarchical structures and models with many parameters to limited data; often the case in ecological studies. I have taken a Bayesian model fitting approach in this thesis. The predator-prey interactions between the hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) are used to demonstrate state-space modelling’s capabilities. The harrier data are believed to be known without error, while missing data make the cyclic dynamics of the grouse harder to model. The grouse-harrier interactions are modelled in a multi-species state-space model, rather than including one species as a covariate in the other’s model. Finally, models are included for the harriers’ alternate prey. The single- and multi-species state-space models for the predator-prey interactions provide insight into the species’ management. The models investigate aspects of the species’ behaviour, from the mechanisms behind grouse cycles to what motivates harrier immigration. The inferences drawn from these models are applicable to management, suggesting actions to halt grouse cycles or mitigate the grouse-harrier conflict. Overall, the multi-species models suggest that two popular ideas for grouse-harrier management, diversionary feeding and habitat manipulation to reduce alternate prey densities, will not have the desired effect, and in the case of reducing prey densities, may even increase the harriers’ impact on grouse chicks.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherUniversity of St Andrews
dc.subjectHen harrieren_US
dc.subjectRed grouseen_US
dc.subjectBayesianen_US
dc.subjectState-space modelen_US
dc.subjectMulti-species modelsen_US
dc.subjectParasitesen_US
dc.subjectAggressionen_US
dc.subjectField volesen_US
dc.subjectMeadow pipitsen_US
dc.subjectWildlife managementen_US
dc.subject.lccQL758.N4
dc.subject.lcshPredation (Biology)--Scotland--Mathematical modelsen
dc.subject.lcshState-space methodsen
dc.subject.lcshCircus cyaneus--Scotlanden
dc.subject.lcshRed grouse--Scotlanden
dc.titleMulti-species state-space modelling of the hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) in Scotlanden_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.type.qualificationlevelDoctoralen_US
dc.type.qualificationnamePhD Doctor of Philosophyen_US
dc.publisher.institutionThe University of St Andrewsen_US


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