The University of St Andrews

Research@StAndrews:FullText >
Mathematics & Statistics (School of) >
Statistics >
Statistics Theses >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
This item has been viewed 8 times in the last year. View Statistics

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
Leslie Frances New PhD thesis.pdf1.51 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Title: Multi-species state-space modelling of the hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) in Scotland
Authors: New, Leslie Frances
Supervisors: Buckland, Stephen T.
Matthiopoulos, Jason
Keywords: Hen harrier
Red grouse
State-space model
Multi-species models
Field voles
Meadow pipits
Wildlife management
Issue Date: 23-Jun-2010
Abstract: State-space modelling is a powerful tool to study ecological systems. The direct inclusion of uncertainty, unification of models and data, and ability to model unobserved, hidden states increases our knowledge about the environment and provides new ecological insights. I extend the state-space framework to create multi-species models, showing that the ability to model ecosystem interactions is limited only by data availability. State-space models are fit using both Bayesian and Frequentist methods, making them independent of a statistical school of thought. Bayesian approaches can have the advantage in their ability to account for missing data and fit hierarchical structures and models with many parameters to limited data; often the case in ecological studies. I have taken a Bayesian model fitting approach in this thesis. The predator-prey interactions between the hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) are used to demonstrate state-space modelling’s capabilities. The harrier data are believed to be known without error, while missing data make the cyclic dynamics of the grouse harder to model. The grouse-harrier interactions are modelled in a multi-species state-space model, rather than including one species as a covariate in the other’s model. Finally, models are included for the harriers’ alternate prey. The single- and multi-species state-space models for the predator-prey interactions provide insight into the species’ management. The models investigate aspects of the species’ behaviour, from the mechanisms behind grouse cycles to what motivates harrier immigration. The inferences drawn from these models are applicable to management, suggesting actions to halt grouse cycles or mitigate the grouse-harrier conflict. Overall, the multi-species models suggest that two popular ideas for grouse-harrier management, diversionary feeding and habitat manipulation to reduce alternate prey densities, will not have the desired effect, and in the case of reducing prey densities, may even increase the harriers’ impact on grouse chicks.
Type: Thesis
Publisher: University of St Andrews
Appears in Collections:Statistics Theses

This item is protected by original copyright

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.


DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2012  Duraspace - Feedback
For help contact: | Copyright for this page belongs to St Andrews University Library | Terms and Conditions (Cookies)