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dc.contributor.authorOedekoven, Cornelia Sabrina
dc.contributor.authorFleishman, Erica
dc.contributor.authorHamilton, Philip
dc.contributor.authorClark, James S.
dc.contributor.authorSchick, Robert Schilling
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-22T15:10:04Z
dc.date.available2015-12-22T15:10:04Z
dc.date.issued2015-11-04
dc.identifier.citationOedekoven , C S , Fleishman , E , Hamilton , P , Clark , J S & Schick , R S 2015 , ' Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic ' Endangered Species Research , vol 29 , no. 1 , pp. 51-58 . DOI: 10.3354/esr00699en
dc.identifier.issn1863-5407
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 218429522
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: d71982c8-94c3-490a-a2cc-8bb09a992284
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10023/7921
dc.descriptionThis work was supported in part by US Office of Naval Research (ONR) grants to E.F.: N00014-09-1-0896 at University of California, Santa Barbara and N00014-12-1-0274 at University of California, Davis. This work was also supported by ONR grant N000141210286 to the University of St Andrews. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge funding for this work from The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS). MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.en
dc.description.abstractNorth Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis; henceforth right whales) are among the most endangered large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence south to Florida. The highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region is part of the species’ migratory corridor. Gaps in knowledge of the species’ movements through the mid-Atlantic limit informed management of stressors to the species. To contribute to filling of these gaps, we elicited estimates of the relative abundance of adult right whales in the mid-Atlantic during four months, representing each season, from ten experts. We elicited the minimum, maximum, and mode as the number of individuals in a hypothetical population of 100 right whales, and confidence estimates as percentages. For each month-sex combination, we merged the ten experts’ answers into one distribution. The estimated modes of relative abundances of both sexes were highest in January and April (females, 29 and 59; males, 22 and 23) and lowest in July and October (females, five and nine; males, three and five). In some cases, our elicitation results were consistent with the results of studies based on sightings data. However, these studies generally did not adjust for sampling effort, which was low and likely variable. Our results supplement the results of these studies and will increase the accuracy of priors in complementary Bayesian models of right whale abundances and movements through the mid-Atlantic.en
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofEndangered Species Researchen
dc.rights© 2015. Published by Inter-Research This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium provided that the original work is properly attributed.en
dc.subjectMerged distributionsen
dc.subjectMigratory corridoren
dc.subjectSurvivalen
dc.subjectTriangular distributionsen
dc.subjectWeighting estimatesen
dc.subjectQA Mathematicsen
dc.subjectGE Environmental Sciencesen
dc.subjectNDASen
dc.subject.lccQAen
dc.subject.lccGEen
dc.titleExpert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlanticen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Mathematics and Statisticsen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modellingen
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.3354/esr00699
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden


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