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dc.contributor.authorNew, L
dc.contributor.authorMatthiopoulos, Jason
dc.contributor.authorRedpath, S
dc.contributor.authorBuckland, Stephen Terrence
dc.identifier.citationNew , L , Matthiopoulos , J , Redpath , S & Buckland , S T 2009 , ' Fitting models of multiple-hypotheses to partial population data : investigating the causes of cycles in red grouse ' , American Naturalist , vol. 174 , no. 3 , pp. 399-412 .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 424450
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 9071e712-d134-4930-865a-0fc9916f68fc
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000268653400013
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 70149118989
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-9939-709X/work/73700975
dc.description.abstractThere are two postulated causes for the observed periodic fluctuations (cycles) in red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). The first involves interaction with the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis. The second invokes delayed regulation through the effect of male aggressiveness on territoriality. Empirical evidence exists to support both hypotheses, and each hypothesis has been modeled deterministically. However, little effort has gone into looking at the combined effects of the two mechanisms or formally fitting the corresponding models to field data. Here we present a model for red grouse dynamics that includes both parasites and territoriality. To explore the single and combined hypotheses, we specify three versions of this model and fit them to data using Bayesian state-space modeling, a method that allows statistical inference to be performed on mechanistic models such as ours. Output from the three models is then examined to determine their goodness of fit and the biological plausibility of the parameter values required by each to fit the population data. While all three models are capable of emulating the observed cyclic dynamics, only the model including both aggression and parasites does so under consistently realistic parameter values, providing theoretical support for the idea that both mechanisms shape red grouse cycles.
dc.relation.ispartofAmerican Naturalisten
dc.rights© 2009 by The University of Chicago.en
dc.subjectBayesian statisticsen
dc.subjectCyclic population dynamicsen
dc.subjectLagopus lagopus scoticusen
dc.subjectstate-space modelingen
dc.subjectTrichostrongylus tenuisen
dc.subjectKin-facilitation hypothesisen
dc.subjectHost-parasite systemen
dc.subjectTerritorial behavioren
dc.subjectQH301 Biologyen
dc.titleFitting models of multiple-hypotheses to partial population data : investigating the causes of cycles in red grouseen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Mathematics and Statisticsen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Biologyen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Scottish Oceans Instituteen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotlanden
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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