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Injecting drug users in Scotland, 2006 : listing, number, demography, and opiate-related death-rates

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Kingetal.pdf (503.1Kb)
Date
06/2013
Author
King, Ruth
Bird, Sheila
Overstall, Antony
Hay, Gordon
Hutchinson, Sharon
Keywords
Bayesian
Capture-recapture
Injectors
Opiate-related deaths
Sex
Age
Metadata
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Abstract
Using Bayesian capture–recapture analysis, we estimated the number of current injecting drug users (IDUs) in Scotland in 2006 from the cross-counts of 5670 IDUs listed on four data-sources: social enquiry reports (901 IDUs listed), hospital records (953), drug treatment agencies (3504), and recent Hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnoses (827 listed as IDU-risk). Further, we accessed exact numbers of opiate-related drugs-related deaths (DRDs) in 2006 and 2007 to improve estimation of Scotland's DRD rates per 100 current IDUs. Using all four data-sources, and model-averaging of standard hierarchical log-linear models to allow for pairwise interactions between data-sources and/or demographic classifications, Scotland had an estimated 31700 IDUs in 2006 (95% credible interval: 24900–38700); but 25000 IDUs (95% CI: 20700–35000) by excluding recent HCV diagnoses whose IDU-risk can refer to past injecting. Only in the younger age-group (15–34 years) were Scotland's opiate-related DRD rates significantly lower for females than males. Older males’ opiate-related DRD rate was 1.9 (1.24–2.40) per 100 current IDUs without or 1.3 (0.94–1.64) with inclusion of recent HCV diagnoses. If, indeed, Scotland had only 25000 current IDUs in 2006, with only 8200 of them aged 35+ years, the opiate-related DRD rate is higher among this older age group than has been appreciated hitherto. There is counter-balancing good news for the public health: the hitherto sharp increase in older current IDUs had stalled by 2006.
Citation
King , R , Bird , S , Overstall , A , Hay , G & Hutchinson , S 2013 , ' Injecting drug users in Scotland, 2006 : listing, number, demography, and opiate-related death-rates ' Addiction Research and Theory , vol 21 , no. 3 , pp. 235-246 . DOI: 10.3109/16066359.2012.706344
Publication
Addiction Research and Theory
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/16066359.2012.706344
ISSN
1476-7392
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright 2013 Informa UK Ltd.
Collections
  • University of St Andrews Research
  • Mathematics & Statistics Research
  • Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modelling (CREEM) Research
  • Scottish Oceans Institute Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4904

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