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dc.contributor.authorKing, Ruth
dc.contributor.authorBird, Sheila
dc.contributor.authorOverstall, Antony
dc.contributor.authorHay, Gordon
dc.contributor.authorHutchinson, Sharon
dc.identifier.citationKing , R , Bird , S , Overstall , A , Hay , G & Hutchinson , S 2014 , ' Estimating prevalence of injecting drug users and associated heroin-related death rates in England by using regional data and incorporating prior information ' , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) , vol. 177 , no. 1 , pp. 209-236 .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 5051647
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: e61d02c3-637c-4360-adbf-5dd2a339a6be
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 84891903138
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000329309600012
dc.description.abstractInjecting drug users (IDUs) have a direct social and economic effect yet can typically be regarded as a hidden population within a community. We estimate the size of the IDU population across the nine different Government Office regions of England in 2005–2006 by using capture–recapture methods with age (ranging from 15 to 64 years) and gender as covariate information. We consider a Bayesian model averaging approach using log-linear models, where we can include explicit prior information within the analysis in relation to the total IDU population (elicited from the number of drug-related deaths and injectors’ drug-related death rates). Estimation at the regional level allows for regional heterogeneity with these regional estimates aggregated to obtain a posterior mean estimate for the number of England's IDUs of 195840 with 95% credible interval (181700, 210480). There is significant variation in the estimated regional prevalence of current IDUs per million of population aged 15–64 years, and in injecting drug-related death rates across the gender × age cross-classifications. The propensity of an IDU to be seen by at least one source also exhibits strong regional variability with London having the lowest propensity of being observed (posterior mean probability 0.21) and the South West the highest propensity (posterior mean 0.46).
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)en
dc.rights© 2013 Royal Statistical Society. This is an open access article. Reuse of this article is permitted in accordance with the terms and conditions set out at Terms.en
dc.subjectDrug-related deathsen
dc.subjectInjecting drug usersen
dc.subjectLog-linear modelsen
dc.subjectModel averagingen
dc.subjectPopulation sizeen
dc.subjectPrior informationen
dc.subjectQA Mathematicsen
dc.titleEstimating prevalence of injecting drug users and associated heroin-related death rates in England by using regional data and incorporating prior informationen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Mathematics and Statisticsen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Scottish Oceans Instituteen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modellingen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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