Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity : challenges and opportunities
MetadataShow full item record
Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series—lack of physical boundaries, uni-dimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality—that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions.
Dornelas , M , Magurran , A , Buckland , S T , Chao , A , Chazdon , R L , Colwell , R K , Curtis , T , Gaston , K J , Gotelli , N J , Kosnik , M A , McGill , B , McCune , J L , Morlon , H , Mumby , P J , Øvreås , L , Studeny , A & Vellend , M 2013 , ' Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity : challenges and opportunities ' Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , vol 280 , no. 1750 , 20121931 . DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2012.1931
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
© 2012 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Items in the St Andrews Research Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.