The war, refugees, and the future of Ukraine's population

Abstract

This study analyses the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on the future of Ukraine's population. We conduct a series of population projections with different assumptions on the proportion of refugees that may return to Ukraine. Our projections show that if past demographic trends continue, Ukraine's population is projected to decline by one-sixth over the next two decades and become older. These trends are largely driven by past and current demographic developments: continued very low fertility and large-scale emigration at the turn of the century. With war casualties and a large portion of the Ukrainian population seeking safety abroad from the conflict, the country's population is projected to decline by one-third. The decline would be even larger among the working-age population and children. Russia's invasion has not only led to immense human and economic costs in Ukraine in the present but also carries long-term demographic repercussions.