Files in this item
Accelerated recent warming and temperature variability over the past eight centuries in the central Asian Altai from blue intensity in tree rings
Item metadata
dc.contributor.author | Davi, Nicole | |
dc.contributor.author | Rao, M. P. | |
dc.contributor.author | Wilson, R. | |
dc.contributor.author | Andreu-Hayles, L. | |
dc.contributor.author | Oelkers, R. | |
dc.contributor.author | D'Arrigo, R. | |
dc.contributor.author | Nachin, B. | |
dc.contributor.author | Buckley, B. | |
dc.contributor.author | Pederson, N. | |
dc.contributor.author | Leland, C. | |
dc.contributor.author | Suran, B. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-03-23T16:30:10Z | |
dc.date.available | 2023-03-23T16:30:10Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-08-28 | |
dc.identifier | 283822448 | |
dc.identifier | 83117b1f-729b-4887-b73e-63b408b39fe3 | |
dc.identifier | 85113520035 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Davi , N , Rao , M P , Wilson , R , Andreu-Hayles , L , Oelkers , R , D'Arrigo , R , Nachin , B , Buckley , B , Pederson , N , Leland , C & Suran , B 2021 , ' Accelerated recent warming and temperature variability over the past eight centuries in the central Asian Altai from blue intensity in tree rings ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 48 , no. 16 , e2021GL092933 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092933 | en |
dc.identifier.issn | 0094-8276 | |
dc.identifier.other | ORCID: /0000-0003-4486-8904/work/131588258 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10023/27253 | |
dc.description | Funding: National Science Foundation (NSF). Grant Number: 1737788 and NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoc Fellow Program. Grant Number: NA18NWS4620043B. | en |
dc.description.abstract | Warming in Central Asia has been accelerating over the past three decades and is expected to intensify through the end of this century. Here, we develop a summer temperature reconstruction for western Mongolia spanning eight centuries (1269–2004 C.E.) using delta blue intensity measurements from annual rings of Siberian larch. A significant cooling response is observed in the year following major volcanic events and up to five years post-eruption. Observed summer temperatures since the 1990s are the warmest over the past eight centuries, an observation that is also well captured in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model simulations. Projections for summer temperature relative to observations suggest further warming of between ∼3°C and 6°C by the end of the century (2075–2099 cf. 1950–2004) under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We conclude that projected future warming lies beyond the range of natural climate variability for the past millennium as estimated by our reconstruction. | |
dc.format.extent | 11 | |
dc.format.extent | 1198375 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Geophysical Research Letters | en |
dc.subject | Central Asia | en |
dc.subject | Delta blue intensity | en |
dc.subject | Dendrochronology | en |
dc.subject | Mongolia | en |
dc.subject | Paleoclimate | en |
dc.subject | Tree rings | en |
dc.subject | GE Environmental Sciences | en |
dc.subject | Geophysics | en |
dc.subject | Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) | en |
dc.subject | DAS | en |
dc.subject | SDG 13 - Climate Action | en |
dc.subject | MCC | en |
dc.subject.lcc | GE | en |
dc.title | Accelerated recent warming and temperature variability over the past eight centuries in the central Asian Altai from blue intensity in tree rings | en |
dc.type | Journal article | en |
dc.contributor.institution | University of St Andrews. School of Earth & Environmental Sciences | en |
dc.contributor.institution | University of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Institute | en |
dc.contributor.institution | University of St Andrews. St Andrews Sustainability Institute | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1029/2021GL092933 | |
dc.description.status | Peer reviewed | en |
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
Items in the St Andrews Research Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.