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Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling

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Date
03/2022
Author
Swallow, Ben
Birrell, Paul
Blake, Joshua
Burgman, Mark
Challenor, Peter
Coffeng, Luc E
Dawid, Philip
De Angelis, Daniela
Goldstein, Michael
Hemming, Victoria
Marion, Glenn
McKinley, Trevelyan J
Overton, Christopher E
Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina
Pellis, Lorenzo
Probert, Will
Shea, Katriona
Villela, Daniel
Vernon, Ian
Keywords
Forecasting
Pandemics
Uncertainty
QA Mathematics
RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
3rd-DAS
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
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Abstract
The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.
Citation
Swallow , B , Birrell , P , Blake , J , Burgman , M , Challenor , P , Coffeng , L E , Dawid , P , De Angelis , D , Goldstein , M , Hemming , V , Marion , G , McKinley , T J , Overton , C E , Panovska-Griffiths , J , Pellis , L , Probert , W , Shea , K , Villela , D & Vernon , I 2022 , ' Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling ' , Epidemics , vol. 38 , 100547 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547
Publication
Epidemics
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547
ISSN
1878-0067
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
Description
DDA, JB and PB are funded by MRC (Unit Programme number MC/UU/00002/11); DDA is also supported by the NIHR Health Protection Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation. JPG's work was supported by funding from the UK Health Security Agency and the UK Department of Health and Social Care.
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/26093

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