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dc.contributor.authorCampisi, Nicholas
dc.contributor.authorKulu, Hill
dc.contributor.authorMikolai, Julia
dc.contributor.authorKlüsener, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorMyrskylä, Mikko
dc.identifier.citationCampisi , N , Kulu , H , Mikolai , J , Klüsener , S & Myrskylä , M 2022 , ' A spatial perspective on the unexpected Nordic fertility decline : the relevance of economic and social contexts ' , Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy , vol. First Online .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 280149459
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 622834ba-bd5a-45fa-a6da-ac524a90e7d3
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-7733-6659/work/115630932
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0001-8808-0719/work/115630976
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85133568740
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000821362400001
dc.descriptionOpen Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.en
dc.description.abstractSince 2010, the Nordic countries have experienced substantial fertility decline. This was unexpected, as these countries have well-established systems of family support policies and they did not experience a fertility shock in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 economic recession like many other European countries. Previous studies paid little attention to the spatial dimension of this unexpected fertility change, despite evidence of large spatial variation in fertility. This paper aims to close this gap through a spatial perspective and deepen our understanding of how Nordic fertility change varies by economic and social contexts. We apply advanced spatial panel models on data for 1,099 municipalities covering Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Next to analyzing total fertility rates, we also compare the relevance of economic and social contexts for spatial fertility variation at younger or older ages. We note distinct differences by levels of urbanization and differing trends between the age groups. We also find that measures of unemployment and union stability are associated with lower levels of fertility across space and time, while support for conservative parties is related to higher fertility. Age-specific analyses highlighted that economic conditions are more relevant for fertility variation under age thirty than over age thirty. Overall, our analysis provides support for the view that both economic and social factors are highly relevant for understanding spatial variation in the Nordic fertility decline. Given the strong spatial component in Nordic fertility change, policy initiatives would also benefit from a spatial dimension to effectively address fertility change.
dc.relation.ispartofApplied Spatial Analysis and Policyen
dc.rightsCopyright © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
dc.subjectEconomic contexten
dc.subjectSocial contextsen
dc.subjectSpatial regressionen
dc.subjectHM Sociologyen
dc.subjectSDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growthen
dc.subjectSDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communitiesen
dc.titleA spatial perspective on the unexpected Nordic fertility decline : the relevance of economic and social contextsen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Population and Health Researchen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Sir James Mackenzie Institute for Early Diagnosisen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Developmenten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Geographies of Sustainability, Society, Inequalities and Possibilitiesen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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