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dc.contributor.authorCarrillo-Balam, Gabriela
dc.contributor.authorDoi, Lawrence
dc.contributor.authorMarryat, Louise
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, Andrew James
dc.contributor.authorBradshaw, Paul
dc.contributor.authorFrank, John
dc.identifier.citationCarrillo-Balam , G , Doi , L , Marryat , L , Williams , A J , Bradshaw , P & Frank , J 2022 , ' Validity of Scottish predictors of child obesity (age 12) for risk screening in mid-childhood : a secondary analysis of prospective cohort study data—with sensitivity analyses for settings without various routinely collected predictor variables ' , International Journal of Obesity , vol. 46 , no. 9 , pp. 1624–1632 .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 279726432
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 60e7c21e-ef7a-442f-9bd5-e0be185e852e
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-2175-8836/work/114335930
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85131324192
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000805705200001
dc.descriptionFunding: The authors acknowledge the generosity of the funders of this work, the Children’s Data Collaborative – a consortium of the Scottish Government, Data-Driven Initiative, UNICEF, and the University of Edinburgh. Additional salary support is gratefully acknowledged for LM’s/LD’S/AJW’s contributions to this work, from (respectively): LM -- School of Health Sciences, University of Dundee; LD -- School of Health in Social Science, University of Edinburgh; AJW -- School of Medicine, University of St Andrews.en
dc.description.abstractObjective : To analyse the Growing Up in Scotland cohort for predictors of obesity at age 12, present at school entry (age 5-6). Methods : The initial model included literature-based risk factors likely to be routinely collected in high-income countries (HICs), as well as “Adverse/Protective Childhood Experiences (ACEs/PCEs)”. Missing data were handled by Multiple Chained Equations. Variable-reduction was performed using multivariable logistic regression with backwards and forwards stepwise elimination, followed by internal validation by bootstrapping. Optimal sensitivity/specificity cut-offs for the most parsimonious and accurate models in two situations (optimum available data, and routinely available data in Scotland) were examined for their referral burden, and Positive and Negative Predictive Values. Results : Data for 2787 children with full outcome data (obesity prevalence 18.3% at age 12) were used to develop the models. The final “Optimum Data” model included six predictors of obesity: maternal body mass index, indoor smoking, equivalized income quintile, child’s sex, child’s BMI at age 5-6, and ACEs. After internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.855 (95% CI 0.852-0.859). A cut-off based on Youden’s J statistic for the Optimum Data model yielded a specificity of 77.8% and sensitivity of 76.3%. 37.0% of screened children were “Total Screen Positives” (and thus would constitute the “referral burden”.) A “Scottish Data” model, without equivalized income quintile and ACEs as a predictor, and instead using Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile and “age at introduction of solid-foods,” was slightly less sensitive (76.2%) but slightly more specific (79.2%), leading to a smaller referral burden (30.8%). Conclusion : Universally collected, machine-readable and linkable data at age 5-6 predict reasonably well children who will be obese by age 12. However, the Scottish treatment system is unable to cope with the resultant referral burden and other criteria for screening would have to be met.
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Obesityen
dc.rightsCopyright © 2022 The Authors. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit
dc.subjectChild obesityen
dc.subjectBody Mass Indexen
dc.subjectGrowing Up in Scotland studyen
dc.subjectRA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicineen
dc.subjectRJ Pediatricsen
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingen
dc.titleValidity of Scottish predictors of child obesity (age 12) for risk screening in mid-childhood : a secondary analysis of prospective cohort study data—with sensitivity analyses for settings without various routinely collected predictor variablesen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Medicineen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Population and Behavioural Science Divisionen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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