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dc.contributor.authorPublic Health Scotland COVID-19 Health Protection Study Group
dc.contributor.authorScottish Diabetes Research Network Epidemiology Group
dc.contributor.authorMcGurnaghan, Stuart J
dc.contributor.authorWeir, Amanda
dc.contributor.authorBishop, Jen
dc.contributor.authorKennedy, Sharon
dc.contributor.authorBlackbourn, Luke A K
dc.contributor.authorMcAllister, David A
dc.contributor.authorHutchinson, Sharon
dc.contributor.authorCaparrotta, Thomas M
dc.contributor.authorMellor, Joseph
dc.contributor.authorJeyam, Anita
dc.contributor.authorO'Reilly, Joseph E
dc.contributor.authorWild, Sarah H
dc.contributor.authorHatam, Sara
dc.contributor.authorHöhn, Andreas
dc.contributor.authorColombo, Marco
dc.contributor.authorRobertson, Chris
dc.contributor.authorLone, Nazir
dc.contributor.authorMurray, Janet
dc.contributor.authorButterly, Elaine
dc.contributor.authorPetrie, John
dc.contributor.authorKennon, Brian
dc.contributor.authorMcCrimmon, Rory
dc.contributor.authorLindsay, Robert
dc.contributor.authorPearson, Ewan
dc.contributor.authorSattar, Naveed
dc.contributor.authorMcKnight, John
dc.contributor.authorPhilip, Sam
dc.contributor.authorCollier, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorMcMenamin, Jim
dc.contributor.authorSmith-Palmer, Alison
dc.contributor.authorGoldberg, David
dc.contributor.authorMcKeigue, Paul M
dc.contributor.authorColhoun, Helen M
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-07T15:34:43Z
dc.date.available2022-04-07T15:34:43Z
dc.date.issued2021-02-01
dc.identifier.citationPublic Health Scotland COVID-19 Health Protection Study Group , Scottish Diabetes Research Network Epidemiology Group , McGurnaghan , S J , Weir , A , Bishop , J , Kennedy , S , Blackbourn , L A K , McAllister , D A , Hutchinson , S , Caparrotta , T M , Mellor , J , Jeyam , A , O'Reilly , J E , Wild , S H , Hatam , S , Höhn , A , Colombo , M , Robertson , C , Lone , N , Murray , J , Butterly , E , Petrie , J , Kennon , B , McCrimmon , R , Lindsay , R , Pearson , E , Sattar , N , McKnight , J , Philip , S , Collier , A , McMenamin , J , Smith-Palmer , A , Goldberg , D , McKeigue , P M & Colhoun , H M 2021 , ' Risks of and risk factors for COVID-19 disease in people with diabetes : a cohort study of the total population of Scotland ' , The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology , vol. 9 , no. 2 , pp. 82-93 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30405-8en
dc.identifier.issn2213-8587
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 275394167
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: a011f75f-3d87-41bf-bb2a-d8a8d72b5c41
dc.identifier.othercrossref: 10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30405-8
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85099198665
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-7170-1205/work/98488311
dc.identifier.otherPubMedCentral: PMC7832778
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-1511-7944/work/116910270
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/25155
dc.descriptionSHu reports grants from Health Protection Scotland during the conduct of the study. TMC reports grants from Diabetes UK (18/0005786). CR reports grants from Public Health Scotland and UK Research and Innovation.en
dc.description.abstractBackground We aimed to ascertain the cumulative risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes and compare it with that of people without diabetes, and to investigate risk factors for and build a cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 among people with diabetes. Methods In this cohort study, we captured the data encompassing the first wave of the pandemic in Scotland, from March 1, 2020, when the first case was identified, to July 31, 2020, when infection rates had dropped sufficiently that shielding measures were officially terminated. The participants were the total population of Scotland, including all people with diabetes who were alive 3 weeks before the start of the pandemic in Scotland (estimated Feb 7, 2020). We ascertained how many people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in this period from the Electronic Communication of Surveillance in Scotland database (on virology), the RAPID database of daily hospitalisations, the Scottish Morbidity Records-01 of hospital discharges, the National Records of Scotland death registrations data, and the Scottish Intensive Care Society and Audit Group database (on critical care). Among people with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, diabetes status was ascertained by linkage to the national diabetes register, Scottish Care Information Diabetes. We compared the cumulative incidence of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with and without diabetes using logistic regression. For people with diabetes, we obtained data on potential risk factors for fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 from the national diabetes register and other linked health administrative databases. We tested the association of these factors with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes, and constructed a prediction model using stepwise regression and 20-fold cross-validation. Findings Of the total Scottish population on March 1, 2020 (n=5 463 300), the population with diabetes was 319 349 (5·8%), 1082 (0·3%) of whom developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 by July 31, 2020, of whom 972 (89·8%) were aged 60 years or older. In the population without diabetes, 4081 (0·1%) of 5 143 951 people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19. As of July 31, the overall odds ratio (OR) for diabetes, adjusted for age and sex, was 1·395 (95% CI 1·304–1·494; p<0·0001, compared with the risk in those without diabetes. The OR was 2·396 (1·815–3·163; p<0·0001) in type 1 diabetes and 1·369 (1·276–1·468; p<0·0001) in type 2 diabetes. Among people with diabetes, adjusted for age, sex, and diabetes duration and type, those who developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were more likely to be male, live in residential care or a more deprived area, have a COVID-19 risk condition, retinopathy, reduced renal function, or worse glycaemic control, have had a diabetic ketoacidosis or hypoglycaemia hospitalisation in the past 5 years, be on more anti-diabetic and other medication (all p<0·0001), and have been a smoker (p=0·0011). The cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes had a C-statistic of 0·85 (0·83–0·86). Interpretation Overall risks of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were substantially elevated in those with type 1 and type 2 diabetes compared with the background population. The risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, and therefore the need for special protective measures, varies widely among those with diabetes but can be predicted reasonably well using previous clinical history.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofThe Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinologyen
dc.subjectCOVID-19en
dc.subjectRA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicineen
dc.subject3rd-DASen
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingen
dc.subject.lccRA0421en
dc.titleRisks of and risk factors for COVID-19 disease in people with diabetes : a cohort study of the total population of Scotlanden
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPostprinten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Developmenten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Medicineen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Education Divisionen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30405-8
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.identifier.urlhttps://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/76405/en


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