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dc.contributor.authorSoultan, Alaaeldin
dc.contributor.authorPavón-jordán, Diego
dc.contributor.authorBradter, Ute
dc.contributor.authorSandercock, Brett
dc.contributor.authorHochachka, Wesley
dc.contributor.authorJohnston, Alison
dc.contributor.authorBrommer, Jon
dc.contributor.authorGaget, Elie
dc.contributor.authorKeller, Verena
dc.contributor.authorKnaus, Peter
dc.contributor.authorAghababyan, Karen
dc.contributor.authorMaxhuni, Qenan
dc.contributor.authorVintchevski, Alexandre
dc.contributor.authorNagy, Károly
dc.contributor.authorRaudonikis, Liutauras
dc.contributor.authorBalmer, Dawn
dc.contributor.authorNoble, David
dc.contributor.authorLeitão, Domingos
dc.contributor.authorØien, Ingar Jostein
dc.contributor.authorShimmings, Paul
dc.contributor.authorSultanov, Elchin
dc.contributor.authorCaffrey, Brian
dc.contributor.authorBoyla, Kerem
dc.contributor.authorRadišić, Dimitrije
dc.contributor.authorLindström, Åke
dc.contributor.authorVelevski, Metodija
dc.contributor.authorPladevall, Clara
dc.contributor.authorBrotons, Lluís
dc.contributor.authorKarel, Šťastný
dc.contributor.authorRajković, Draženko Z.
dc.contributor.authorChodkiewicz, Tomasz
dc.contributor.authorWilk, Tomasz
dc.contributor.authorTibor, Szép
dc.contributor.authorVan Turnhout, Chris
dc.contributor.authorFoppen, Ruud
dc.contributor.authorBurfield, Ian
dc.contributor.authorVikstrøm, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorMazal, Vlatka Dumbović
dc.contributor.authorEaton, Mark
dc.contributor.authorVorisek, Petr
dc.contributor.authorLehikoinen, Aleksi
dc.contributor.authorHerrando, Sergi
dc.contributor.authorKuzmenko, Tatiana
dc.contributor.authorBauer, Hans-Günther
dc.contributor.authorKalyakin, Mikhail
dc.contributor.authorVoltzit, Olga
dc.contributor.authorSjeničić, Jovica
dc.contributor.authorPärt, Tomas
dc.identifier.citationSoultan , A , Pavón-jordán , D , Bradter , U , Sandercock , B , Hochachka , W , Johnston , A , Brommer , J , Gaget , E , Keller , V , Knaus , P , Aghababyan , K , Maxhuni , Q , Vintchevski , A , Nagy , K , Raudonikis , L , Balmer , D , Noble , D , Leitão , D , Øien , I J , Shimmings , P , Sultanov , E , Caffrey , B , Boyla , K , Radišić , D , Lindström , Å , Velevski , M , Pladevall , C , Brotons , L , Karel , Š , Rajković , D Z , Chodkiewicz , T , Wilk , T , Tibor , S , Van Turnhout , C , Foppen , R , Burfield , I , Vikstrøm , T , Mazal , V D , Eaton , M , Vorisek , P , Lehikoinen , A , Herrando , S , Kuzmenko , T , Bauer , H-G , Kalyakin , M , Voltzit , O , Sjeničić , J & Pärt , T 2022 , ' The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution ' , Environmental Research Letters , vol. 17 , no. 2 , 024025 .
dc.identifier.othercrossref: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0001-8221-013X/work/107718415
dc.descriptionFunding: We also acknowledge the Scientific Project of the State Order of the Government of Russian Federation to Lomonosov Moscow State University No. 121032300105-0 for participating in EBBA2 data. Our research was funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA—Net COFUND program, with the following funding organizations: the Academy of Finland (Univ. Turku: 326327, Univ. Helsinki: 326338), the Swedish Research Council (Swedish Univ. Agric. Sci: 2018–02440, Lund Univ.: 2018–02441), the Research Council of Norway (Norwegian Instit. for Nature Res., 295767), and the National Science Foundation (Cornell Univ., ICER-1927646), and we also acknowledge the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.en
dc.description.abstractWetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Research Lettersen
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modelsen
dc.subjectEuropean Breeding Bird Atlasen
dc.subjectBreeding distributionsen
dc.subjectClimate changeen
dc.subjectLand-use changeen
dc.subjectQA Mathematicsen
dc.subjectQH301 Biologyen
dc.subjectQL Zoologyen
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Actionen
dc.subjectSDG 15 - Life on Landen
dc.titleThe future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distributionen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Statisticsen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modellingen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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