Diagnostic and predictive accuracy of anti-Mullerian hormone for ovarian function after chemotherapy in premenopausal women with early breast cancer

Abstract

Purpose Accurate diagnosis and prediction of loss of ovarian function after chemotherapy for premenopausal women with early breast cancer (eBC) is important for future fertility and clinical decisions regarding the need for subsequent adjuvant ovarian suppression. We have investigated the value of anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) as serum biomarker for this. Methods AMH was measured in serial blood samples from 206 premenopausal women aged 40–45 years with eBC, before and at intervals after chemotherapy. The diagnostic accuracy of AMH for loss of ovarian function at 30 months after chemotherapy and the predictive value for that of AMH measurement at 6 months were analysed. Results Undetectable AMH showed a high diagnostic accuracy for absent ovarian function at 30 months with AUROC 0.89 (96% CI 0.84–0.94, P < 0.0001). PPV of undetectable AMH at 6 months for a menopausal estradiol level at 30 months was 0.77. In multivariate analysis age, pre-treatment AMH and FSH, and taxane treatment were significant predictors, and combined with AMH at 6 months, gave AUROC of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86–0.94), with PPV 0.79 for loss of ovarian function at 30 months. Validation by random forest models with 30% data retained gave similar results. Conclusions AMH is a reliable diagnostic test for lack of ovarian function after chemotherapy in women aged 40–45 with eBC. Early analysis of AMH after chemotherapy allows identification of women who will not recover ovarian function with good accuracy. These analyses will help inform treatment decisions regarding adjuvant endocrine therapy in women who were premenopausal before starting chemotherapy.