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Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

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Date
06/05/2021
Author
Edwards, Tamsin L.
Nowicki, Sophie
Marzeion, Ben
Hock, Regine
Goelzer, Heiko
Seroussi, Hélène
Jourdain, Nicolas C.
Slater, Donald A.
Turner, Fiona E.
Smith, Christopher J.
McKenna, Christine M.
Simon, Erika
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Gregory, Jonathan M.
Larour, Eric
Lipscomb, William H.
Payne, Antony J.
Shepherd, Andrew
Agosta, Cécile
Alexander, Patrick
Albrecht, Torsten
Anderson, Brian
Asay-Davis, Xylar
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Bliss, Andrew
Calov, Reinhard
Chambers, Christopher
Champollion, Nicolas
Choi, Youngmin
Cullather, Richard
Cuzzone, Joshua
Dumas, Christophe
Felikson, Denis
Fettweis, Xavier
Fujita, Koji
Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.
Gladstone, Rupert
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Hattermann, Tore
Hoffman, Matthew J.
Humbert, Angelika
Huss, Matthias
Huybrechts, Philippe
Immerzeel, Walter
Kleiner, Thomas
Kraaijenbrink, Philip
Le clec’h, Sébastien
Lee, Victoria
Leguy, Gunter R.
Little, Christopher M.
Lowry, Daniel P.
Malles, Jan-Hendrik
Martin, Daniel F.
Maussion, Fabien
Morlighem, Mathieu
O’Neill, James F.
Nias, Isabel
Pattyn, Frank
Pelle, Tyler
Price, Stephen F.
Quiquet, Aurélien
Radić, Valentina
Reese, Ronja
Rounce, David R.
Rückamp, Martin
Sakai, Akiko
Shafer, Courtney
Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
Shannon, Sarah
Smith, Robin S.
Straneo, Fiammetta
Sun, Sainan
Tarasov, Lev
Trusel, Luke D.
Van Breedam, Jonas
van de Wal, Roderik
van den Broeke, Michiel
Winkelmann, Ricarda
Zekollari, Harry
Zhao, Chen
Zhang, Tong
Zwinger, Thomas
Keywords
G Geography (General)
DAS
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Abstract
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.
Citation
Edwards , T L , Nowicki , S , Marzeion , B , Hock , R , Goelzer , H , Seroussi , H , Jourdain , N C , Slater , D A , Turner , F E , Smith , C J , McKenna , C M , Simon , E , Abe-Ouchi , A , Gregory , J M , Larour , E , Lipscomb , W H , Payne , A J , Shepherd , A , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Albrecht , T , Anderson , B , Asay-Davis , X , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Bliss , A , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Champollion , N , Choi , Y , Cullather , R , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Fujita , K , Galton-Fenzi , B K , Gladstone , R , Golledge , N R , Greve , R , Hattermann , T , Hoffman , M J , Humbert , A , Huss , M , Huybrechts , P , Immerzeel , W , Kleiner , T , Kraaijenbrink , P , Le clec’h , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G R , Little , C M , Lowry , D P , Malles , J-H , Martin , D F , Maussion , F , Morlighem , M , O’Neill , J F , Nias , I , Pattyn , F , Pelle , T , Price , S F , Quiquet , A , Radić , V , Reese , R , Rounce , D R , Rückamp , M , Sakai , A , Shafer , C , Schlegel , N-J , Shannon , S , Smith , R S , Straneo , F , Sun , S , Tarasov , L , Trusel , L D , Van Breedam , J , van de Wal , R , van den Broeke , M , Winkelmann , R , Zekollari , H , Zhao , C , Zhang , T & Zwinger , T 2021 , ' Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise ' , Nature , vol. 593 , no. 7857 , pp. 74-82 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
Publication
Nature
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
ISSN
0028-0836
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
Collections
  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/24263

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