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dc.contributor.authorLeung, Brian
dc.contributor.authorHargreaves, Anna L.
dc.contributor.authorGreenberg, Dan A.
dc.contributor.authorMcGill, Brian
dc.contributor.authorDornelas, Maria
dc.contributor.authorFreeman, Robin
dc.identifier.citationLeung , B , Hargreaves , A L , Greenberg , D A , McGill , B , Dornelas , M & Freeman , R 2020 , ' Clustered versus catastrophic global vertebrate declines ' , Nature , vol. 588 , no. 7837 , pp. 267-271 .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 271317079
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 71dd9334-3f64-42b2-8562-e9cf1da870cc
dc.identifier.otherRIS: urn:E6C6C1B9B46C8F455BA796C3E0C3A45E
dc.identifier.otherRIS: Leung2020
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000591047800007
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85096221046
dc.descriptionFunding: This work was supported by a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) Discovery grant to B.L.en
dc.description.abstractRecent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index2). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic–geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts.
dc.rightsCopyright © 2020 the Author(s). This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at
dc.subjectQH301 Biologyen
dc.titleClustered versus catastrophic global vertebrate declinesen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Biologyen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Centre for Biological Diversityen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Fish Behaviour and Biodiversity Research Groupen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotlanden
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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