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dc.contributor.authorBerto, Franz
dc.contributor.authorÖzgün, Aybüke
dc.identifier.citationBerto , F & Özgün , A 2021 , ' Indicative conditionals : probabilities and relevance ' , Philosophical Studies , vol. First Online .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 273246291
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 52588a6f-773b-4a82-a6af-0b696748575e
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0003-3246-657X/work/92775600
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000641191400002
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85116622379
dc.descriptionThis research is published within the project ‘The Logic of Conceivability’, funded by the European Research Council (ERC CoG), Grant Number 681404.en
dc.description.abstractWe propose a new account of indicative conditionals, giving acceptability and logical closure conditions for them. We start from Adams’ Thesis: the claim that the acceptability of a simple indicative equals the corresponding conditional probability. The Thesis is widely endorsed, but arguably false and refuted by empirical research. To fix it, we submit, we need a relevance constraint: we accept a simple conditional φ→ψ to the extent that (i) the conditional probability p(ψ|φ) is high, provided that (ii) φ is relevant for ψ. How (i) should work is well-understood. It is (ii) that holds the key to improve our understanding of conditionals. Our account has (i) a probabilistic component, using Popper functions; (ii) a relevance component, given via an algebraic structure of topics or subject matters. We present a probabilistic logic for simple indicatives, and argue that its (in)validities are both theoretically desirable and in line with empirical results on how people reason with conditionals.
dc.relation.ispartofPhilosophical Studiesen
dc.rightsCopyright © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
dc.subjectConditionals probabilitiesen
dc.subjectAdams' thesisen
dc.subjectSubject matteren
dc.subjectBC Logicen
dc.titleIndicative conditionals : probabilities and relevanceen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPublisher PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Philosophyen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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