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dc.contributor.authorMitchell, Emily G.
dc.contributor.authorWallace, Margaret I.
dc.contributor.authorSmith, V. Anne
dc.contributor.authorWiesenthal, Amanda A.
dc.contributor.authorBrierley, Andrew S.
dc.identifier.citationMitchell , E G , Wallace , M I , Smith , V A , Wiesenthal , A A & Brierley , A S 2021 , ' Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift ' , Scientific Reports , vol. 11 , no. 1 , 3707 .
dc.identifier.otherJisc: 74cb22b07edf426e81e4491052765bfc
dc.identifier.otherpublisher-id: s41598-021-82825-w
dc.identifier.othermanuscript: 82825
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-0487-2469/work/89178284
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-6438-6892/work/89178322
dc.descriptionThis study and the sampling at sea was funded by a grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NE/E010350/1) to ASB and VAS. EGM was funded by a NERC grant (NE/P002412/1) and Independent Research Fellowship (NE/S014756/1).en
dc.description.abstractRobust time-series of direct observations of jellyfish abundance are not available for many ecosystems, leaving it difficult to determine changes in jellyfish abundance, the possible causes (e.g. climate change) or the consequences (e.g. trophic cascades). We sought an indirect ecological route to reconstruct jellyfish abundance in the Irish Sea: since zooplankton are jellyfish prey, historic variability in zooplankton communities may provide proxies for jellyfish abundance. We determined the Bayesian ecological network of jellyfish–zooplankton dependencies using jellyfish- and zooplankton-abundance data obtained using nets during a 2-week cruise to the Irish Sea in 2008. This network revealed that Aurelia aurita abundance was dependent on zooplankton groups Warm Temperate and Temperate Oceanic as defined by previous zooplankton ecology work. We then determined historic zooplankton networks across the Irish Sea from abundance data from Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys conducted between 1970 and 2000. Transposing the 2008 spatial dependencies onto the historic networks revealed that Aurelia abundance was more strongly dependent over time on sea surface temperature than on the zooplankton community. The generalist predatory abilities of Aurelia may have insulated this jellyfish over the 1985 regime shift when zooplankton composition in the Irish Sea changed abruptly, and also help explain its globally widespread distribution.
dc.relation.ispartofScientific Reportsen
dc.subjectCommunity ecologyen
dc.subjectConservation biologyen
dc.subjectEcological networksen
dc.subjectEcosystem ecologyen
dc.subjectGC Oceanographyen
dc.subjectQA Mathematicsen
dc.subjectQH301 Biologyen
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Actionen
dc.titleBayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shiften
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Instituteen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Biologyen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Centre for Biological Diversityen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. St Andrews Centre for Exoplanet Scienceen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Institute of Behavioural and Neural Sciencesen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Office of the Principalen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. St Andrews Bioinformatics Uniten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modellingen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Pelagic Ecology Research Groupen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotlanden
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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