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dc.contributor.authorSmout, Sophie Caroline
dc.contributor.authorKing, Ruth
dc.contributor.authorPomeroy, Patrick
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-20T00:36:21Z
dc.date.available2020-11-20T00:36:21Z
dc.date.issued2019-11-20
dc.identifier.citationSmout , S C , King , R & Pomeroy , P 2019 , ' Environment-sensitive mass changes influence breeding in a capital breeding marine top predator ' , Journal of Animal Ecology , vol. Early View . https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13128en
dc.identifier.issn0021-8790
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 34763180
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 0126d7c9-b82c-4345-8ae7-06bb1eb1df12
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0003-1603-5630/work/65013809
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85075246591
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000514860500011
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10023/21017
dc.descriptionUK Natural Environment Research Council funding to the Sea Mammal Research Unit enabled this work. NERC grant no. NE/G008930/1 and Esmée Fairbairn Foundation (PP). SCS was supported as a EPSRC postdoctoral fellow (RK, PP).en
dc.description.abstract1. The trade‐off between survival and reproduction in resource‐limited iteroparous animals can result in some individuals missing some breeding opportunities. In practice, even with the best observation regimes, deciding whether ‘missed’ years represent real pauses in breeding or failures to detect breeding can be difficult, posing problems for the estimation of individual reproductive output and overall population fecundity. 2. We corrected fecundity estimates by determining whether breeding had occurred in skipped years, using long‐term capture–recapture observation datasets with parallel longitudinal mass measurements, based on informative underlying relationships between individuals’ mass, breeding status and environmental drivers in a capital breeding phocid, the grey seal. 3. Bayesian modelling considered interacting processes jointly: temporal changes in a phenotypic covariate (mass); relationship of mass to breeding probability; effects of maternal breeding state and mark type on resighting. Full reproductive histories were imputed, with the status of unobserved animals estimated as breeding or non‐breeding, accounting for local environmental variation. Overall fecundity was then derived for Scottish breeding colonies with contrasting pup production trends. 4. Maternal mass affected breeding likelihood. Mothers with low body mass at the end of breeding were less likely to bear a pup the following year. Successive breeding episodes incurred a cost in reduced body mass which was more pronounced for North Rona, Outer Hebrides (NR) mothers. Skipping breeding increased subsequent pupping probability substantially for low mass females. Poor environmental conditions were associated with declines in breeding probability at both colonies. Seal mass gain between breeding seasons was (a) negatively associated with lagged North Atlantic Oscillation for seals at NR and (b) positively associated with an index of seal prey (Ammodytes spp) abundance at Isle of May, Firth of Forth (IM). Overall fecundity was marginally greater at IM (increasing/stable pup production) than at NR (decreasing). No effects of mass were detected on maternal survival. 5. Skipping breeding in female grey seals appears to be an individual mass‐dependent constraint moderated by previous reproductive output and local environmental conditions. Different demographic trends at breeding colonies were consistent with the fecundities estimated using this method, which is general and adaptable to other situations.
dc.format.extent13
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Animal Ecologyen
dc.rightsCopyright © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2019 British Ecological Society. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13128en
dc.subjectFecundityen
dc.subjectHalichoerus grypusen
dc.subjectMassen
dc.subjectState space modelen
dc.subjectGC Oceanographyen
dc.subjectGE Environmental Sciencesen
dc.subjectQH301 Biologyen
dc.subjectDASen
dc.subjectNERCen
dc.subjectBDPen
dc.subject.lccGCen
dc.subject.lccGEen
dc.subject.lccQH301en
dc.titleEnvironment-sensitive mass changes influence breeding in a capital breeding marine top predatoren
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPostprinten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Biologyen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Sea Mammal Research Uniten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Scottish Oceans Instituteen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modellingen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Mathematics and Statisticsen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotlanden
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13128
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.date.embargoedUntil2020-11-20


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