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dc.contributor.authorThomas, Len
dc.contributor.authorRussell, Debbie JF
dc.contributor.authorDuck, Callan David
dc.contributor.authorMorris, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorLonergan, Michael Edward
dc.contributor.authorEmpacher, Fanny
dc.contributor.authorThompson, David
dc.contributor.authorHarwood, John
dc.identifier.citationThomas , L , Russell , D JF , Duck , C D , Morris , C , Lonergan , M E , Empacher , F , Thompson , D & Harwood , J 2019 , ' Modelling the population size and dynamics of the British grey seal ' , Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems , vol. 29 , no. S1 , pp. 6-23 .
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 258203841
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 2d5c1ee2-c03c-4c41-8c6e-e3a14193b999
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-1969-102X/work/61622002
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-7436-067X/work/61622011
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0003-1546-2876/work/61622044
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85071754423
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000484997200002
dc.descriptionFunding: part-funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council to SMRU (Grant no. SMRU1001).en
dc.description.abstract1. Grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) were the first mammals to be protected by an Act of Parliament in the UK and are currently protected under UK, Scottish, and EU conservation legislation. Reporting requirements under each of these statutes requires accurate and timely population estimates. Monitoring is principally conducted by aerial surveys of the breeding colonies; these are used to produce estimates of annual pup production. Translating these data to estimates of adult population size requires information about demographic parameters such as fecundity and sex ratio. 2. An age‐structured population dynamics model is presented, which includes density dependence in pup survival, with separate carrying capacities in each of the four breeding regions considered (North Sea, Inner Hebrides, Outer Hebrides, and Orkney). This model is embedded within a Bayesian state–space modelling framework, allowing the population model to be linked to available data and the use of informative prior distributions on demographic parameters. A computer‐intensive fitting algorithm is presented based on particle filtering methods. 3. The model is fitted to region‐level pup production estimates from 1984 to 2010 and an independent estimate of adult population size, derived from aerial surveys of hauled‐out seals in 2008. The fitted model is used to estimate total population size from 1984 to 2010. 4. The population in the North Sea region has increased at a near‐constant rate; growth in the other three regions began to slow in the mid‐1990s and these populations appear to have reached carrying capacity. The total population size of seals aged 1 year or older in 2010 was estimated to be 116 100 (95% CI 98 400–138 600), an increase of <1% on the previous year. 5. The modelling and fitting methods are widely applicable to other wildlife populations where diverse sources of information are available and inference is required for the underlying population dynamics.
dc.relation.ispartofAquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystemsen
dc.rightsCopyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at
dc.subjectBayesian statisticsen
dc.subjectDelayed density dependenceen
dc.subjectHalichoerus grypusen
dc.subjectIntegrated population monitoringen
dc.subjectParticle filteren
dc.subjectPoplution dynamicsen
dc.subjectPopulation trenden
dc.subjectSequential Monte Carloen
dc.subjectGC Oceanographyen
dc.subjectQA Mathematicsen
dc.subjectQH301 Biologyen
dc.subjectAquatic Scienceen
dc.subjectEcology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematicsen
dc.subjectStatistics and Probabilityen
dc.titleModelling the population size and dynamics of the British grey sealen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Statisticsen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Mathematics and Statisticsen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotlanden
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modellingen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Sea Mammal Research Uniten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.Scottish Oceans Instituteen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Biologyen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.St Andrews Sustainability Instituteen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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