A prospective new diagnostic technique for distinguishing eruptive and noneruptive active regions
Date
26/09/2019Funder
Grant ID
647214
ST/S000402/1
ST/N000609/1
PO: 4070103637
N/A
810218
Keywords
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Active regions are the source of the majority of magnetic flux rope ejections that become coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To identify in advance which active regions will produce an ejection is key for both space weather prediction tools and future science missions such as Solar Orbiter. The aim of this study is to develop a new technique to identify which active regions are more likely to generate magnetic flux rope ejections. The new technique will aim to (i) produce timely space weather warnings and (ii) open the way to a qualified selection of observational targets for space-borne instruments. We use a data-driven nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model to describe the 3D evolution of the magnetic field of a set of active regions. We determine a metric to distinguish eruptive from noneruptive active regions based on the Lorentz force. Furthermore, using a subset of the observed magnetograms, we run a series of simulations to test whether the time evolution of the metric can be predicted. The identified metric successfully differentiates active regions observed to produce eruptions from the noneruptive ones in our data sample. A meaningful prediction of the metric can be made between 6 and 16 hr in advance. This initial study presents an interesting first step in the prediction of CME onset using only line-of-sight magnetogram observations combined with NLFFF modeling. Future studies will address how to generalize the model such that it can be used in a more operational sense and for a variety of simulation approaches.
Citation
Pagano , P , Mackay , D H & Yardley , S L 2019 , ' A prospective new diagnostic technique for distinguishing eruptive and noneruptive active regions ' , Astrophysical Journal , vol. 883 , no. 2 , 112 . https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab3e42
Publication
Astrophysical Journal
Status
Peer reviewed
ISSN
0004-637XType
Journal article
Rights
Copyright © 2019 The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the final published version of the work, which was originally published at https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab3e42
Description
This research has received funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) through the consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. 647214). This work used the DiRAC@Durham facility managed by the Institute for Computational Cosmology on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility (www.dirac.ac.uk). The equipment was funded by BEIS capital funding via STFC capital grants ST/P002293/1, ST/R002371/1, and ST/S002502/1, Durham University and STFC operations grant ST/R000832/1. DiRAC is part of the National e-Infrastructure. S.L.Y. would like to acknowledge STFC for support via the Consolidated Grants SMC1/YST025 and SMC1/YST037. D.H.M. would like to thank both the UK STFC and the ERC (Synergy Grant: WHOLE SUN, Grant Agreement No. 810218) for financial support.Collections
Items in the St Andrews Research Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Connecting the large- and the small-scale magnetic fields of solar-like stars
Lehmann, L. T.; Jardine, M. M.; Mackay, D. H.; Vidotto, A. A. (2018-08-21) - Journal articleA key question in understanding the observed magnetic field topologies of cool stars is the link between the small- and the large-scalemagnetic field and the influence of the stellar parameters on the magnetic field topology. ... -
JPEG2000 image compression on solar EUV images
Fischer, Catherine; Mueller, Daniel; De Moortel, Ineke (2017-01) - Journal articleFor future solar missions as well as ground-based telescopes, efficient ways to return and process data has become increasingly important. Solar Or-biter, e.g., the next ESA/NASA mission to explore the Sun and the ... -
Nonlinear force-free field modeling of solar coronal jets in theoretical configurations
Meyer, Karen Alison; Savcheva, Antonia S.; Mackay, Duncan Hendry; DeLuca, Ed E. (2019-07-25) - Journal articleCoronal jets occur frequently on the Sun, and may contribute significantly to the solar wind. With the suite of instruments available now, we can observe these phenomena in greater detail than ever before. Modeling and ...