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Double the dates and go for Bayes — impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies
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dc.contributor.author | Blaauw, Maarten | |
dc.contributor.author | Christen, J. Andrés | |
dc.contributor.author | Bennett, K. D. | |
dc.contributor.author | Reimer, Paula J. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-04-05T23:38:33Z | |
dc.date.available | 2019-04-05T23:38:33Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2018-05-15 | |
dc.identifier | 252771049 | |
dc.identifier | 9e2377eb-8d40-45a3-9dd2-c58fb9016a90 | |
dc.identifier | 85044949126 | |
dc.identifier | 000432770600005 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Blaauw , M , Christen , J A , Bennett , K D & Reimer , P J 2018 , ' Double the dates and go for Bayes — impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies ' , Quaternary Science Reviews , vol. 188 , pp. 58-66 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.032 | en |
dc.identifier.issn | 0277-3791 | |
dc.identifier.other | RIS: urn:97C9DA57B2C8480D7A5FB169D36AE419 | |
dc.identifier.other | ORCID: /0000-0002-3423-1531/work/43646818 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10023/17469 | |
dc.description | This work was partly funded by a Banco Santander travel grant to MB. We are also grateful to the Past Earth Network (http://www.pastearth.net/) for writing support (grant number EP/M008363/1). | en |
dc.description.abstract | Reliable chronologies are essential for most Quaternary studies, but little is known about how age-depth model choice, as well as dating density and quality, affect the precision and accuracy of chronologies. A meta-analysis suggests that most existing late-Quaternary studies contain fewer than one date per millennium, and provide millennial-scale precision at best. We use existing and simulated sediment cores to estimate what dating density and quality are required to obtain accurate chronologies at a desired precision. For many sites, a doubling in dating density would significantly improve chronologies and thus their value for reconstructing and interpreting past environmental changes. Commonly used classical age-depth models stop becoming more precise after a minimum dating density is reached, but the precision of Bayesian age-depth models which take advantage of chronological ordering continues to improve with more dates. Our simulations show that classical age-depth models severely underestimate uncertainty and are inaccurate at low dating densities, and also perform poorly at high dating densities. On the other hand, Bayesian age-depth models provide more realistic precision estimates, including at low to average dating densities, and are much more robust against dating scatter and outliers. Indeed, Bayesian age-depth models outperform classical ones at all tested dating densities, qualities and time-scales. We recommend that chronologies should be produced using Bayesian age-depth models taking into account chronological ordering and based on a minimum of 2 dates per millennium. | |
dc.format.extent | 9 | |
dc.format.extent | 695737 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Quaternary Science Reviews | en |
dc.subject | Age-depth model | en |
dc.subject | Radiocarbon dates | en |
dc.subject | Chronological uncertainties | en |
dc.subject | Bayesian statistics | en |
dc.subject | G Geography (General) | en |
dc.subject | GA Mathematical geography. Cartography | en |
dc.subject | 3rd-DAS | en |
dc.subject | BDC | en |
dc.subject | R2C | en |
dc.subject.lcc | G1 | en |
dc.subject.lcc | GA | en |
dc.title | Double the dates and go for Bayes — impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies | en |
dc.type | Journal article | en |
dc.contributor.institution | University of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Development | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.032 | |
dc.description.status | Peer reviewed | en |
dc.date.embargoedUntil | 2019-04-06 | |
dc.identifier.url | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118301070?via%3Dihub#appsec1 | en |
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