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dc.contributor.authorBlaauw, Maarten
dc.contributor.authorChristen, J. Andrés
dc.contributor.authorBennett, K. D.
dc.contributor.authorReimer, Paula J.
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-05T23:38:33Z
dc.date.available2019-04-05T23:38:33Z
dc.date.issued2018-05-15
dc.identifier.citationBlaauw , M , Christen , J A , Bennett , K D & Reimer , P J 2018 , ' Double the dates and go for Bayes — impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies ' , Quaternary Science Reviews , vol. 188 , pp. 58-66 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.032en
dc.identifier.issn0277-3791
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 252771049
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 9e2377eb-8d40-45a3-9dd2-c58fb9016a90
dc.identifier.otherRIS: urn:97C9DA57B2C8480D7A5FB169D36AE419
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85044949126
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-3423-1531/work/43646818
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000432770600005
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10023/17469
dc.descriptionThis work was partly funded by a Banco Santander travel grant to MB. We are also grateful to the Past Earth Network (http://www.pastearth.net/) for writing support (grant number EP/M008363/1).en
dc.description.abstractReliable chronologies are essential for most Quaternary studies, but little is known about how age-depth model choice, as well as dating density and quality, affect the precision and accuracy of chronologies. A meta-analysis suggests that most existing late-Quaternary studies contain fewer than one date per millennium, and provide millennial-scale precision at best. We use existing and simulated sediment cores to estimate what dating density and quality are required to obtain accurate chronologies at a desired precision. For many sites, a doubling in dating density would significantly improve chronologies and thus their value for reconstructing and interpreting past environmental changes. Commonly used classical age-depth models stop becoming more precise after a minimum dating density is reached, but the precision of Bayesian age-depth models which take advantage of chronological ordering continues to improve with more dates. Our simulations show that classical age-depth models severely underestimate uncertainty and are inaccurate at low dating densities, and also perform poorly at high dating densities. On the other hand, Bayesian age-depth models provide more realistic precision estimates, including at low to average dating densities, and are much more robust against dating scatter and outliers. Indeed, Bayesian age-depth models outperform classical ones at all tested dating densities, qualities and time-scales. We recommend that chronologies should be produced using Bayesian age-depth models taking into account chronological ordering and based on a minimum of 2 dates per millennium.
dc.format.extent9
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofQuaternary Science Reviewsen
dc.rights© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. This work has been made available online in accordance with the publisher’s policies. This is the author created, accepted version manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.032en
dc.subjectAge-depth modelen
dc.subjectRadiocarbon datesen
dc.subjectChronological uncertaintiesen
dc.subjectBayesian statisticsen
dc.subjectG Geography (General)en
dc.subjectGA Mathematical geography. Cartographyen
dc.subject3rd-DASen
dc.subjectBDCen
dc.subjectR2Cen
dc.subject.lccG1en
dc.subject.lccGAen
dc.titleDouble the dates and go for Bayes — impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologiesen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.description.versionPostprinten
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews.School of Geography & Sustainable Developmenten
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.032
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.date.embargoedUntil2019-04-06
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118301070?via%3Dihub#appsec1en


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