Cyclical behavior of international fund flows

Abstract

We investigate the cyclicality of international fund flows employing correlation and regression analysis using monthly data for almost 70 countries between 1996 and 2013. International fund flows are cross-border investments by global funds. Our results suggest that contemporaneously international fund flows are counter-cyclical: fund flows are above trend when output is below trend. Bond flows are more counter-cyclical than equity flows. Furthermore, the counter-cyclical behavior of fund flows has become more pronounced after the global financial crisis. Fund flows into non-OECD countries are mainly driven by global factors while fund flows into OECD countries are more influenced by country-specific factors.