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Response of the intertropical convergence zone to climate change : location, width and strength

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Byrne_2018_CCCR_intertropicalconvergencezone_CC.pdf (937.5Kb)
Date
09/08/2018
Author
Byrne, Michael Patrick
Pendergrass, Angeline
Rapp, Anita
Wodzicki, Kyle
Keywords
Intertropical convergence zone
Tropical precipitation
Atmospheric dynamics
Climate change
QE Geology
3rd-NDAS
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Abstract
Purpose of Review:  The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a planetary-scale band of heavy precipitation close to the equator. Here, we consider the response of the ITCZ structure to climate change using observations, simulations, and theory. We focus on the substantial yet underappreciated projected changes in ITCZ width and strength, and highlight an emerging conceptual framework for understanding these changes. Recent Findings: Satellite observations and reanalysis data show a narrowing and strengthening of precipitation in the ITCZ over recent decades in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, but little change in ITCZ location. Consistent with observations, coupled climate models predict no robust change in the zonal-mean ITCZ location over the twenty-first century. However, the majority of models project a narrowing of the ITCZ and weakening mean ascent. Interestingly, changes in ITCZ width and strength are strongly anti-correlated across models. Summary:  The ITCZ has narrowed over recent decades yet its location has remained approximately constant. Climate models project further narrowing and a weakening of the average ascent within the ITCZ as the climate continues to warm. Following intense work over the last ten years, the physical mechanisms controlling the ITCZ location are now well understood. The development of complementary theories for ITCZ width and strength is a current research priority. Outstanding challenges include understanding the ITCZ response to past climate changes and over land versus ocean regions, and better constraining all aspects of the ITCZ structure in model projections.
Citation
Byrne , M P , Pendergrass , A , Rapp , A & Wodzicki , K 2018 , ' Response of the intertropical convergence zone to climate change : location, width and strength ' , Current Climate Change Reports , vol. First Online . https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0110-5
Publication
Current Climate Change Reports
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0110-5
ISSN
2198-6061
Type
Journal article
Rights
Copyright © The Author(s) 2018. Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Description
M.P.B. acknowledges support from the Imperial College London Research Fellowship Scheme. A.G.P. acknowledges support from the Regional and Global ClimateModeling Program (RGCM) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. A.D.R.’s and K.R.W.’s contributions were supported by NASA grants NNX13AG91G and NNX15AD13G.
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/16418

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