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Trace-contrast models for capture-recapture without capture histories

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Fewster_2016_SS_Capture_Recapture_FinalPubVersion.pdf (260.2Kb)
Date
26/05/2016
Author
Fewster, R. M.
Stevenson, B. C.
Borchers, D. L.
Funder
The Royal Society of Edinburgh
Grant ID
N/A
Keywords
Camera-traps
Mark recapture
Natural tags
Neyman-scott process
Palm likelihood estimation
Rattus species
QA Mathematics
Statistics and Probability
Mathematics(all)
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
NDAS
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Abstract
Capture-recapture studies increasingly rely upon natural tags that allow animals to be identified by features such as coat markings, DNA profiles, acoustic profiles, or spatial locations. These innovations greatly increase the number of capture samples achievable and enable capture-recapture estimation for many inaccessible and elusive species. However, natural features are invariably imperfect as indicators of identity. Drawing on the recently developed Palm likelihood approach to parameter estimation in clustered point processes, we propose a new estimation framework based on comparing pairs of detections, which we term the trace-contrast framework. Importantly, no reconstruction of capture histories is needed. We show that we can achieve accurate, precise, and computationally fast inference. We illustrate the methods with a camera-trap study of a partially marked population of ship rats (Rattus rattus) in New Zealand.
Citation
Fewster , R M , Stevenson , B C & Borchers , D L 2016 , ' Trace-contrast models for capture-recapture without capture histories ' , Statistical Science , vol. 31 , no. 2 , pp. 245-258 . https://doi.org/10.1214/16-STS551
Publication
Statistical Science
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1214/16-STS551
ISSN
0883-4237
Type
Journal article
Rights
© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2016. This work is made available online in accordance with the publisher’s policies. This is the final published version of the work, which was originally published at: https://doi.org/10.1214/16-STS551
Description
This work was funded by the Royal Society of New Zealand through Marsden Grant 14-UOA-155. Ben Stevenson was supported by EPSRC/NERC Grant EP/1000917/1.
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/13010

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