Relationship between trying an electronic cigarette and subsequent cigarette experimentation in Scottish adolescents : a cohort study
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Background This study examines whether young never smokers in Scotland, UK, who have tried an e-cigarette are more likely than those who have not, to try a cigarette during the following year. Methods Prospective cohort survey conducted in four high schools in Scotland, UK during February/March 2015 (n=3807) with follow-up 1 year later. All pupils (age 11–18) were surveyed. Response rates were high in both years (87% in 2015) and 2680/3807 (70.4%) of the original cohort completed the follow-up survey. Analysis was restricted to baseline ‘never smokers’ (n=3001/3807), 2125 of whom were available to follow-up (70.8%). Results At baseline, 183 of 2125 (8.6%) never smokers had tried an e-cigarette and 1942 had not. Of the young people who had not tried an e-cigarette at baseline, 249 (12.8%) went on to try smoking a cigarette by follow-up. This compares with 74 (40.4%) of those who had tried an e-cigarette at baseline. This effect remained significant in a logistic regression model adjusted for smoking susceptibility, having friends who smoke, family members’ smoking status, age, sex, family affluence score, ethnic group and school (adjusted OR 2.42 (95% CI 1.63 to 3.60)). There was a significant interaction between e-cigarette use and smoking susceptibility and between e-cigarette use and smoking within the friendship group. Conclusions Young never smokers are more likely to experiment with cigarettes if they have tried an e-cigarette. Causality cannot be inferred, but continued close monitoring of e-cigarette use in young people is warranted.
Best , C , Haseen , F , Currie , D B , Ozakinci , G , Mackintosh , A M , Stead , M , Eadie , D , McGregor , A , Pearce , J , Amos , A , Frank , J & Haw , S 2017 , ' Relationship between trying an electronic cigarette and subsequent cigarette experimentation in Scottish adolescents : a cohort study ' Tobacco Control . DOI: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053691
© 2017, the Author(s). This work has been made available online in accordance with the publisher’s policies. This is the author created, accepted version manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at tobaccocontrol.bmj.com / https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053691
This project was funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) PHR project 10/3000/07
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