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dc.contributor.authorAstell-Burt, Thomas Edward
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Xiaoqi
dc.contributor.authorKolt, Gregory S.
dc.contributor.authorJalaludinf, Bin
dc.identifier.citationAstell-Burt , T E , Feng , X , Kolt , G S & Jalaludinf , B 2015 , ' Does rising crime lead to increasing distress? Longitudinal analysis of a natural experiment with dynamic objective neighbourhood measures ' Social Science and Medicine . DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.05.014en
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 187187022
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 3aa6db36-ae3d-4a8b-95df-bdae7528ccb0
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 84930629396
dc.description.abstractIdentifying ‘neighbourhood effects’ to support widespread beliefs that where we live matters for our health remains a major challenge due to the reliance upon observational data. In this study we reassess the issue of local crime rates and psychological distress by applying unobserved bias models to a sample of participants who remain in the same neighbourhoods throughout the study. Baseline data was extracted from the 45 and Up Study between 2006 and 2008 and followed up as part of the Social Economic and Environmental Factors (SEEF) Study between 2009 and 2010. Kessler 10 scores were recorded for 25 545 men and 29 299 women reported valid outcomes. Annual crime rates per 1,000 (including non-domestic violence, malicious damage, break and enter, and stealing, theft and robbery) from 2006 to 2010 inclusive were linked to the person-level data. Change in exposure to crime among participants in this study, therefore, occurs as a result of a change in the local crime rate, rather than a process of neighbourhood selection. Gender stratified unobserved bias logistic regression adjusting for sources of time-varying confounding (age, income, employment, couple status and physical functioning) indicated that an increase in the risk of experiencing psychological distress was generally associated with an increase in the level of neighbourhood crime. Effect sizes were particularly high for women, especially for an increase in malicious damage (Odds Ratio Tertile 3 vs Tertile 1 2.40, 95% Confidence Interval 1.88, 3.05), which may indicate that damage to local built environment is an important pathway linking neighbourhood crime with psychological distress. No statistically significant association was detected for an increase in non-domestic violence, although the effect was in the hypothesised direction. In summary, the application of unobserved bias models to analyse data that takes into account the temporally dynamic characteristics of where people live warrants further investigation.en
dc.relation.ispartofSocial Science and Medicineen
dc.rightsCopyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This work is made available online in accordance with the publisher’s policies. This is the author created, accepted version manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at
dc.subjectMental healthen
dc.subjectUnobserved bias modelsen
dc.subjectLongitudinal studyen
dc.subjectHealth selective migrationen
dc.subjectReverse causationen
dc.subjectGF Human ecology. Anthropogeographyen
dc.titleDoes rising crime lead to increasing distress? Longitudinal analysis of a natural experiment with dynamic objective neighbourhood measuresen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of St Andrews. School of Geography and Geosciencesen
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden

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