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Quantifying injury to common bottlenose dolphins from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill using an age-, sex- and class-structured population model

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Date
31/01/2017
Author
Schwacke, Lori H.
Thomas, Len
Wells, Randall S.
McFee, Wayne E.
Hohn, Aleta A.
Mullin, Keith D.
Zolman, Eric S.
Quigley, Brian M.
Rowles, Teri K.
Schwacke, John H.
Keywords
Bayesian model
Cetacean
Deepwater Horizon
Density dependence
Impact assessment
Monte Carlo analysis
Population model
Survival
QH301 Biology
GC Oceanography
Ecology
Nature and Landscape Conservation
NDAS
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Abstract
Field studies documented increased mortality, adverse health effects, and reproductive failure in common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. In order to determine the appropriate type and amount of restoration needed to compensate for losses, the overall extent of injuries to dolphins had to be quantified. Simply counting dead individuals does not consider long-term impacts to populations, such as the loss of future reproductive potential from mortality of females, or the chronic health effects that continue to compromise survival long after acute effects subside. Therefore, we constructed a sex- and agestructured model of population growth and included additional class structure to represent dolphins exposed and unexposed to DWH oil. The model was applied for multiple stocks to predict injured population trajectories using estimates of post-spill survival and reproductive rates. Injured trajectories were compared to baseline trajectories that were expected had the DWH incident not occurred. Two principal measures of injury were computed: (1) lost cetacean years (LCY); the difference between baseline and injured population size, summed over the modeled time period, and (2) time to recovery; the number of years for the stock to recover to within 95% of baseline. For the dolphin stock in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, the estimated LCY was substantial: 30 347 LCY (95% CI: 11 511 to 89 746). Estimated time to recovery was 39 yr (95% CI: 24 to 80). Similar recovery timelines were predicted for stocks in the Mississippi River Delta, Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay and the Northern Coastal Stock.
Citation
Schwacke , L H , Thomas , L , Wells , R S , McFee , W E , Hohn , A A , Mullin , K D , Zolman , E S , Quigley , B M , Rowles , T K & Schwacke , J H 2017 , ' Quantifying injury to common bottlenose dolphins from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill using an age-, sex- and class-structured population model ' , Endangered Species Research , vol. 33 , pp. 265-279 . https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00777
Publication
Endangered Species Research
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00777
ISSN
1863-5407
Type
Journal article
Rights
© L. Thomas, R. S. Wells and (outside the USA) the US Government 2017. Open Access under Creative Commons by Attribution Licence. Use, distribution and reproduction are unrestricted. Authors and original publication must be credited.
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10587

Items in the St Andrews Research Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

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