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Estimating the frequency of volcanic ash clouds over northern Europe

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Lawson_2016_EPSL_VolcanicAshClouds_CC.pdf (2.273Mb)
Date
15/02/2017
Author
Watson, E. J.
Swindles, G. T.
Savov, I. P.
Lawson, I. T.
Connor, C. B.
Wilson, J. A.
Keywords
Cryptotephra
Reoccurrence
Survival analysis
Hazards
Eruptions
Iceland
GE Environmental Sciences
DAS
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Abstract
Fine ash produced during explosive volcanic eruptions can be dispersed over a vast area, where it poses a threat to aviation, human health and infrastructure. Here, we focus on northern Europe, which lies in the principal transport direction for volcanic ash from Iceland, one of the most active volcanic regions in the world. We interrogate existing and newly produced geological and written records of past ash fallout over northern Europe in the last 1000 years and estimate the mean return (repose) interval of a volcanic ash cloud over the region to be 44 ± 7 years. We compare tephra records from mainland northern Europe, Great Britain, Ireland and the Faroe Islands, with records of proximal Icelandic volcanism and suggest that an Icelandic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index rating (VEI) ≥ 4 and a silicic magma composition presents the greatest risk of producing volcanic ash that can reach northern Europe. None of the ash clouds in the European record which have a known source eruption are linked to a source eruption with VEI < 4. Our results suggest that ash clouds are more common over northern Europe than previously proposed and indicate the continued threat of ash deposition across northern Europe from eruptions of both Icelandic and North American volcanoes.
Citation
Watson , E J , Swindles , G T , Savov , I P , Lawson , I T , Connor , C B & Wilson , J A 2017 , ' Estimating the frequency of volcanic ash clouds over northern Europe ' , Earth and Planetary Science Letters , vol. 460 , pp. 41-49 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.054
Publication
Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Status
Peer reviewed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.054
ISSN
0012-821X
Type
Journal article
Rights
© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Description
This research was undertaken while Elizabeth Watson held a NERC-funded Doctoral Training Grant (NE/K500847/1). Support for development of the Monte Carlo recurrence rate model was provided by NSF award ACI 1339768 to C.B. Connor.
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  • University of St Andrews Research
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10002

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