Understanding spatial variation in fertility. An application of spatial statistical methods to fertility in Great Britain

Abstract

This thesis provides an in-depth analysis of spatial fertility variation in Great Britain with a primary focus on empirical findings derived from applying spatially-explicit methodologies to longitudinal data. The research explores the influence of various determinants on spatial fertility patterns and examines the roles of compositional, contextual factors and diffusion. The existing theoretical literature on spatial variation in fertility suggests that ideological diffusion represents the most important long-term driver of fertility dynamics however empirical studies explicitly modelling this diffusion are rare within the literature.

Key empirical findings include significant spatial autocorrelation in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across Great Britain. This thesis extends the traditional urban-rural dichotomy in fertility variation. The thesis utilises a Spatial Durbin Panel Model to reveal the complex interplay between fertility rates and area characteristics, both within and between regions. It also finds evidence that diffusion processes play a significant role in the spatial patterning of fertility in Great Britain.

The thesis identifies several critical variables influencing spatial variation in fertility. Notably, unemployment within an area positively correlates with TFR, while neighbouring area’s unemployment negatively impacts fertility. This suggests a nuanced spatial mediation of unemployment on fertility decisions.

Another notable finding is the significant neighbourhood effects on fertility in Scotland, particularly for first births. This is evidenced by large spatial random effects even after accounting for individual-level characteristics and urban-rural classifications. Results show a significant proportion of this spatial effect can be attributed to a structured spatial effect. This thesis demonstrates the effectiveness of spatially explicit models in demography, notably in analysing the complex spatial dynamics of fertility. These empirical findings offer substantial insights into the spatial patterns of fertility in Great Britain, highlighting the importance of diffusion as a key determinant of spatial variation in fertility.